软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑-20260127

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market fundamentals of cotton have limited drivers, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment, likely to continue the range - bound trend. The lower space is relatively limited, and it is mainly regarded as a short - term adjustment [1] - In the context of the production peak of the northern hemisphere's main producing countries and the expected increase in production, the short - term fundamentals of the international sugar market have limited changes. Without other factors, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound [1] - After another round of decline, the market is gradually approaching the crushing cost of southern sugarcane mills. The cost of out - of - quota imported sugar currently has little difference from the futures price, and the downward space is gradually narrowing [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Xinjiang cotton inventory is decreasing, processing enterprises are actively selling, and the spot basis is firm. Downstream cotton yarn varieties continue to show differentiation, with stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns and weak operation of low - count yarns [1] - Cotton enterprises have relatively abundant inventory and actively quote for promotion. Spinning enterprises increase point - price purchases when prices fall and reduce transactions when prices rise. The pre - Spring Festival restocking is in the final stage, and local transactions have slightly increased [1] Sugar - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 3,997 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 5,077 yuan per ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 1,443 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 363 yuan per ton [2]