塑料日报：低开后震荡运行-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 27, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar of recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. The cost - end factors like cold weather and the tense situation in Iran have pushed up the crude oil price. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. The L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 27, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. Cold weather and the tense situation in Iran pushed up the crude oil price. New production capacities were put into operation. The plastic is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. The L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract oscillated with increased positions, with a minimum price of 6,831 yuan/ton, a maximum of 6,920 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,899 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.23%. The position increased by 5,747 lots to 520,760 lots. [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 60 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,720 - 7,070 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,840 - 8,190 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 27, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 89%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was also stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly, but the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar of recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 60,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to 65 US dollars/barrel. The ethylene price in Northeast Asia remained flat at 705 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat at 685 US dollars/ton week - on - week. [4]