烧碱日报：跟踪生产企业减产情况-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. In the short - term, due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the price is weak, but there may be a rebound from over - selling, especially after April next year. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production reduction situation of caustic soda production enterprises [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Over the weekend, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continued to decline, with some orders negotiated on a one - by - one basis and actual orders down by 10 - 20. The procurement volume and price of downstream customers outside the province were low, providing little support to Shandong. The procurement price of alumina in the province dropped by 15 to 600 over the weekend [1] - The caustic soda operating rate was 87.70% (+1.00%), and the weekly output was 86.30 tons (+1.00%). For demand, the operating rate of main downstream alumina was 85.18% (-0.65%), the weekly output was 183.90 tons (-1.40), and the port inventory was 16.80 (+3.20). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 56.54% (-2.22%); that of viscose staple fiber was 88.43% (+0.00%); that of white cardboard was 74.37% (-6.30%); that of broad - leaf pulp was 89.70% (-1.30%) [1] - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 22, China's caustic soda (converted to 100%) output in December was 4.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The cumulative output from January to December was 46.535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the domestic demand expansion strategy from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the individual consumer loan fiscal interest - subsidy policy to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term price decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons. The futures price has continuously hit new lows. In the short - term weak supply - demand situation, the price is weak, but beware of over - selling rebounds, especially after April next year [3]