铁合金日报-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 27, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5604, down 0.43% with a decrease of 10,700 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5818, down 0.17% with an increase of 11,862 in positions [6]. - The valuation levels of both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are low. They can be considered as long - side allocation when the price is low. For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold long positions when the price is low, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Market - SF main contract: closed at 5604, daily change - 24, weekly change + 52, trading volume 112,403 (down 35,305 from the previous day), open interest 196,604 (down 10,700 from the previous day) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5818, daily change - 10, weekly change + 20, trading volume 103,945 (down 28,433 from the previous day), open interest 371,448 (up 11,862 from the previous day) [3]. - Spot Market - Silicon - iron: Spot prices in some regions decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton daily and up 30 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Spot prices were generally stable. For example, the price of silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - Basis/Spread - Silicon - iron: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 254, with a daily change of - 26 and a weekly change of - 22 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 138, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of - 20 [3]. - SF - SM spread: - 214, daily change - 14, weekly change + 32 [3]. - Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Australian lump ore decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree to 41.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of South African semi - carbonate ore remained unchanged at 36.2 yuan/ton - degree [3]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The price in Shaanxi was 755 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3]. Market Judgement - Silicon - iron - Supply: The output of sample enterprises continued to decline at a low level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in the future due to the technical transformation expected from the differential electricity price in Shaanxi [6]. - Demand: The steel output is generally stable. Based on blast furnace maintenance data, the future hot - metal output is expected to increase slightly, which will support the demand for raw materials [6]. - Cost: The electricity price in the main production areas is stable with a weak trend, but there is still an expectation of an increase in some areas [6]. - Manganese - silicon - Supply: The output of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities are still being put into operation, and the supply is generally stable [7]. - Demand: Similar to silicon - iron, the future hot - metal output is expected to increase slightly, providing short - term support for raw material demand [7]. - Cost: The port inventory of manganese ore has increased slightly but remains at a low level. The port spot is generally firm, and the overseas mine quotes continue to rise [7]. Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [10][14][16][17]