粕类日报：供应有所增加，盘面震荡运行-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and there is still price pressure. The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term. [4][6] - The domestic spot supply is tightening, and the market demand remains good. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. [7][8] - It is recommended to adopt a short - term bearish strategy for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options. [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices: The soybean meal futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2908, 2766, and 2857 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 11. The rapeseed meal futures prices for contracts 01, 05, and 09 closed at 2225, 2271, and 2293 respectively, with changes of - 8, 2, and - 9. [3] - Spot basis: The spot basis of soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao is 400, 310, 300, and 310 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi is 259, 159, and 149 respectively. [3] - Spreads: The 15 - spread of soybean meal is 142, down 5 from yesterday; the 59 - spread is - 91, up 8; the 91 - spread is - 51, down 3. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal is - 46, down 10; the 59 - spread is - 22, up 11; the 91 - spread is 68, down 1. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 536, up 27 from yesterday. [3] 2. Fundamentals - International market: The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory is raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate. The overall supply - demand of U.S. soybeans is relatively loose. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are expected to be in a good harvest, and the export volume is expected to increase. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance. [4] - Domestic market: The domestic soybean supply is tightening, the oil mill operating rate is increasing but the quantity is decreasing, the提货量 is slightly decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, the oil mill operation is almost stagnant, the rapeseed supply is low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is at a high level. [7] 3. Logical Analysis - U.S. soybeans: The inventory pressure is large, but the demand improvement may slow down the downward speed. [8] - Brazilian soybeans: The weather is good, the yield is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. [8] - Argentine soybeans: Affected by dry weather, the price is relatively strong, but the driving effect may be limited. [8] - Domestic soybeans: The future soybean arrivals will decrease, the supply is uncertain, the spot price has support, but the upward space is limited. [8] - Rapeseed meal: The import price is high, and the pressure may increase after the supply of Canadian rapeseed increases. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. [8] 4. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Adopt a bearish strategy. [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. [9] - Options: Sell wide straddles. [9] 5. Soybean Pressing Profits - The pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For example, the March shipment has a盘面压榨利润 of 143.23 and a现货压榨利润 of 219.73, with a profit increase of 35.37 compared to yesterday. [10]