螺纹热卷日报-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, following macro - sentiment. Factors such as coal production, iron ore supply, and steel demand influence the market [5]. - The total inventory of steel products is accumulating, with the inventory of rebar accelerating and the inventory of hot - rolled coils still decreasing overall. The demand for rebar is decreasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coils, although slightly declining, is still better than the same period last year [5]. - The cost of steel has support due to coal production, imports, and the shortage of pb powder, but the resumption of hot metal production restricts the upward space of steel prices [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3230 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3280 yuan (-10), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3170 yuan (+ - 0) [4]. Market Judgement - Transaction Strategy - The unilateral trend of steel is expected to be volatile [6]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Important Information - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 73982.0 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - Five steel mills have announced maintenance plans, with an estimated total impact on production of about 45.5 tons [9][10]. Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10), the spread between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01), the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts, the cash profit of different steel products in different regions, and the cost of electric furnaces [15][17][20] etc.