银河期货航运日报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current spot freight rates in the container shipping market are in a downward trend during the off - season, and the rush of shipments due to export tax rebates is less than expected, making it difficult to reverse the decline. The EC2604 contract has a discount, and the subsequent spot situation should be monitored. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is still difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year. The risk of the Iranian situation remains, so short - term unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage should be held [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Route) - Futures Market - Different futures contracts of the container freight index (European route) have different closing prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1,717.5 points, down 9.2 points or - 0.53%, with a trading volume of 984.0 lots (up 74.16%) and an open interest of 3,495.0 lots (down 17.28%) [4]. - The month - spread structure also shows different price differences and their changes. For example, the price difference between EC02 - EC04 is 524, down 2.9 [4]. - Container Freight Rates - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline on a weekly basis. For example, the SCFIS European route index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86 points, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4]. - Fuel Costs - The prices of WTI crude oil near - month and Brent crude oil near - month also show declines. The WTI crude oil near - month price is 60.64 dollars/barrel, down 0.57% week - on - week and 17.89% year - on - year. The Brent crude oil near - month price is 64.9 dollars/barrel, down 0.83% week - on - week and 16.2% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Analysis - The spot freight rates are in the off - season decline, and the rush of shipments due to the export tax rebate policy is less than expected. The 1/23 SCFI European route quote is 1595 dollars/TEU, down 4.83% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European route quote on Monday after the market is 1859.31 points, down 4.9% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [6]. - From the fundamental perspective, the demand side is seeing a decline in cargo volume after reaching a peak, and the supply side shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity in Shanghai - Northern Europe 5 ports this week, with little change in February and March. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is difficult for large - scale resumption of shipping on the European route in the first half of the year [7]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract, differences in the rush of shipments, and the unresolved risk of the Iranian situation, unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US President Trump said that the Iranian situation is "changing rapidly", and he sent a "huge fleet" to the region, but he believes that Iran wants to reach an agreement [12]. - The US will increase tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the trade agreement [12]. - India plans to significantly reduce the import tariff on EU cars from a maximum of 110% to 40%, and the future tariff may be further reduced to 10%, which may lead to the signing of a free trade agreement with the EU [12]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the SCFIS European route index and SCFIS US - West route index, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [14][15][24].