PVC日报：震荡下行-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is experiencing a downward trend with limited upward drivers. The supply side shows a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, while the demand side remains weak due to the ongoing adjustment in the real - estate sector. The inventory is at a high level, and although there is a significant increase in export orders, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, which is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, and the downstream operating rate increased by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. Exports increased significantly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance is increasing. The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate sector is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement needs time [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased by 0.55% to close at 4911 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 34793 hands in the position to 1060308 hands. The mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 216 yuan/ton, strengthening by 46 yuan/ton, which is at a low level [2][3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by companies such as Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%. New production capacities of several companies were put into operation in 2025 [4]. - Demand: The real - estate sector is in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of January 25, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% month - on - month and was at a low level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 22, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% to 1177500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 57.01%, and the inventory is still high [6].