每日核心期货品种分析-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on January 22nd had more declining contracts than rising ones. Platinum dropped over 4%, PTA over 3%, and other commodities also had significant drops. On the upside, silver rose over 7%, and palm oil over 2%. Different futures contracts showed various price trends and capital flows, and each commodity had its own supply - demand and market - influencing factors [5][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low. The exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio. Supply was affected by a strike at a Chilean copper mine, and TC/RC fees were weak. The expected domestic electrolytic copper production in January decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Demand was affected by the approaching Spring Festival and high copper prices. The C - L spread was converging, and the overall supply might improve marginally. In the short term, copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there was a possibility of a cooling market in the second half of the year [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The production rate was high, and the inventory was decreasing. The export tax - rebate policy for batteries was adjusted, and the demand for batteries was strong. After a period of shock adjustment, the price was expected to be strong, but caution was needed due to high volatility [12]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan. The US crude oil inventory increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The US called for an increase in global oil production. The demand concern was alleviated, but the global crude oil floating storage was high, and the supply was in surplus. Geopolitical risks in Iran and other regions increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate [13][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy oil was restricted, which affected domestic asphalt production. It was recommended to use the reverse arbitrage strategy before March [15][17]. PP - The downstream PP production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. The cost was affected by the rising oil price. The PP price was expected to be strong in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound was questionable. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [18]. Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and the downstream production rate was at a low level. The petrochemical inventory was low. New production capacity was put into operation. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [19][20]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export orders increased due to the export tax - rebate policy. The social inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still in adjustment. The PVC price had limited upward momentum [21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. The Mongolian coal customs clearance was high, and the domestic production increased. The inventory of coking coal mines and downstream enterprises increased, and the winter - storage replenishment slowed down. The coking coal price was expected to be weak in the short term [22][23]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure increased as gas - based plants resumed production. The compound fertilizer factory's production rate increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. The inventory was decreasing, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level [24].