【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报：震荡运行-20260127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a decline in the asphalt start - up rate, and the expected production in January 2026 is lower than the previous month and the same period last year. The downstream industry start - up rate mostly declined, and the inventory rate is at a relatively low level. With the impact of geopolitical situations on raw materials and the slowdown of demand due to weather, it is recommended to focus on the shortage of refining raw materials and adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy before March [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Some local refineries in Shandong stopped asphalt production this week, and the start - up rate remained low [1]. - Demand side: Most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries decreased last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the temperature drop, road construction in the north is gradually ending, and subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, and southern projects are also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical impact: The US military action in Venezuela restricts the flow of heavy - oil to domestic refineries, which will affect asphalt production and cost. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.31% to 3,279 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,260 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,299 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 10,433 to 163,341 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong area remained at 3,140 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract remained at - 139 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative [4]. - Investment data: From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Downstream start - up rate: As of the week of January 23, most of the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries decreased, and the start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point compared with January - November, and the recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand was still weak [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 23, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 13.6% compared with the week of January 16, and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].