【冠通期货研究报告】沪铜日报：情绪降温，铜价偏弱-20260127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to experience short - term high - level oscillations. In the second half of the year, as the mining end resumes production and supply becomes looser, the market may cool down. Currently, due to dollar support and supply tightness, copper prices are strong, but the upside is limited by demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, with a decline on the day. The supply side is affected by the strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile, and the TC/RC fees are weakly stable with a downward trend. SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January will decrease by 1.45 tons month - on - month (a 1.23% decline) and increase by 15.63 tons year - on - year (a 14.78% increase). The demand side shows that as of December 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 131.88 tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises have started their holidays, and the procurement willingness for raw materials is low. The performance of new energy vehicles is poor, while traditional industries such as refrigerators and air conditioners have a slight increase. After the weakening of the US copper tariff collection expectation, the C - L spread has converged, and the US copper inventory may overflow, which may ease the inventory structure imbalance caused by copper tariffs [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with a decline on the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 250 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 235 yuan/ton. On January 26, 2026, the LME official price is 13245 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 50 US dollars/ton [3] 3. Supply Side - As of January 26, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 50 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.18 cents/pound [8] 4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 14.49 tons, a decrease of 406 tons from the previous period. As of January 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 10.03 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 17.05 tons, a decrease of 1175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 56.56 thousand short tons, an increase of 3257 short tons from the previous period [12]