钢材&铁矿石日报：产业担忧发酵，钢矿偏弱震荡-20260127

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 0.79%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar production has significantly increased, supply has grown, while demand is weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.60%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined, but inventory is high and the pressure remains. Demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the decent speculative demand. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.51%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the reduction in iron ore supply is limited, demand is weak, and combined with high inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weak. Iron ore prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the China Development Bank issued over 200 billion yuan in railway loans, a year - on - year increase of 27.8%, and the railway loan balance exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time. By the end of 2025, the total operating mileage of high - speed rail projects supported by the bank exceeded 42,500 kilometers, accounting for over 85% of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high - speed rail network. In the future, it will continue to increase support for railway construction [7]. - According to the Tower Crane Rental Industry Prosperity Index (TPI) in December 2025, the utilization rate of tower crane days was 55.1%, and the utilization rate of maximum lifting moment was 56.8%, 2 and 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively. The rental price index was 496.52 points, 5.65 points lower than the previous month and 57.283 points lower than the same period last year [8]. - On January 23, 2026, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced a new exporter review investigation of anti - dumping and counter - subsidy on aluminized zinc - coated steel sheets imported from the Chinese mainland at the request of a Chinese exporter. The investigation period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, and the final ruling is expected to be submitted by April 15, 2026 [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all declined, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The spot prices of PB powder in Shandong ports increased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, the SGX swap price decreased, and the iron ore price index declined [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,126 yuan, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 673,796 lots and an open interest of 1,714,659 lots. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,289 yuan, a decline of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots and an open interest of 1,508,428 lots. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 788.0 yuan, a decline of 0.51%, with a trading volume of 211,744 lots and an open interest of 571,053 lots [12]. Related Charts - The section on related charts mainly presents various inventory and production - related charts of steel and iron ore, including steel inventory, iron ore inventory, and steel mill production conditions, showing the trends and seasonal characteristics of relevant data over multiple years [14][22][27]. 后市研判 - For rebar, supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure during the off - season but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will continue to oscillate at a low level, and inventory changes should be monitored [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. Inventory is high, and demand resilience is weakening. Although speculative demand is decent, the price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply reduction is limited, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The price is under pressure but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will maintain an oscillating trend, and steel mills' restocking should be monitored [35].