尿素周报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly report - Date of Completion: January 23, 2026 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current futures price of urea is supported by inventory reduction and demand recovery, but the high supply and the expansion of futures premium may lead to basis repair pressure [6]. - It is necessary to track whether the enterprise inventory can continue to decline, whether the port inventory starts to be destocked, whether the compound fertilizer operation rate can break through 45%, the agricultural fertilizer procurement rhythm, the expectation of new export quota release, and the transmission of international urea price fluctuations to the domestic market [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the main contract of urea futures showed a high - level volatile trend, with the futures premium continuously expanding. The market maintained range - bound fluctuations in the game between high supply and demand recovery. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory destocking and export policy dynamics [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The industry operating rate is 86.39%, with a daily output of 205,100 tons, at a high level in recent years. The resumption of gas - based and technical renovation devices has increased supply, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [4]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory is 946,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 40,100 tons, and the port inventory is 121,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The inventory destocking trend alleviates market concerns about oversupply [4]. - Demand side: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 42.96% (+2.88%), and the melamine operating rate is 63.65% (+1.47%), providing rigid support for industrial demand. In the agricultural sector, the procurement of winter and spring fertilizers has started, and some areas have followed up with off - season storage replenishment [4][5]. - Export: In December 2025, the export volume was 489,350 tons, and the export profit remained high. However, there is no news of new export quotas, and the actual export increment is limited [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The current futures price is supported by inventory destocking and demand recovery, but high supply and the expansion of futures premium may cause basis repair pressure. Key factors to track include inventory trends, compound fertilizer operation rate, agricultural procurement rhythm, export quota expectations, and international price transmissions [6].