橡胶甲醇原油：风险溢价减弱能化震荡收低

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 16,200 yuan/ton, closing 0.31% lower at 16,205 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. Affected by the collective correction of the energy and chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a fluctuating trend in the future [6]. - On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,336 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,285 yuan/ton, closing 1.07% lower at 2,304 yuan/ton, and the discount of the May - September spread widened to 25 yuan/ton. As the geopolitical risks weaken, the methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [6]. - On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating and falling back, and slightly closing lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 454.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.4 yuan/barrel, closing 0.93% lower at 446.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weaken, the premium part of crude oil has been partially reversed, and the short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%, and the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had support from foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, while most other enterprises maintained stable production schedules. The all - steel tire shipment pressure increased, and some enterprises had moderate production control, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly lower. Currently, it is in the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production schedules to reserve inventory for post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In total, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market in 2025 reached a new high in the past four years at 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. In terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 14.386 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.478 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 806,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,205 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 255 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,315 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | 2,304 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 11 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.6 yuan/barrel | - 17.0 yuan/barrel | - 10.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, May - September spread, warehouse inventory, and tire production rates), methanol (such as methanol basis, May - September spread, port and inland inventory, and production rates of related derivatives), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes). The data sources for these charts are from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [15][28][40].