美国美妆市场观察：购买更“挑剔”，分化更显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cosmetics industry [7]. Core Insights - The U.S. beauty market is experiencing a notable divide, with consumers becoming more selective in their purchases, leading to a stronger performance in the high-end segment compared to mass-market products [1]. - Estee Lauder's "Beauty Reimagined" strategy is showing early signs of success, with market share recovery in the U.S. and significant growth in China after a period of decline [2]. - ULTA Beauty reported strong same-store sales growth, leading to an upward revision of its revenue guidance for FY25 [3]. - Smaller players in the beauty and medical aesthetics sectors are facing challenges, with many reporting declining revenues [4]. - K-beauty brands are performing exceptionally well in the U.S., with significant export growth and market share gains [5]. Summary by Sections U.S. Beauty Market Overview - The U.S. high-end and mass beauty markets grew by 4% and 5% year-over-year respectively in Q1-Q3 2025, with mass fragrances showing the strongest growth [1]. - Consumers are cutting back on non-essential spending, impacting overall market performance, but brands like ELF and Coty are still facing challenges [1]. Estee Lauder's Strategy - The new CEO's "Beauty Reimagined" strategy is effectively attracting new consumers and has led to a recovery in market share in the U.S. and China [2]. - The company's stock has rebounded approximately 130% since April 2025, although it remains below its peak market value of $133.9 billion from December 2021 [2]. ULTA Beauty Performance - ULTA reported a 6.3% year-over-year increase in same-store sales for Q3, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [3]. - The company has raised its FY25 revenue guidance to $12.3 billion, with same-store sales growth projected between 4.4% and 4.7% [3]. Challenges for Smaller Players - Smaller beauty and medical aesthetics companies are struggling, with ELF reporting a -3% organic revenue growth in FY26Q2, and Coty experiencing five consecutive quarters of revenue decline in the Americas [4]. - Medical aesthetics companies like InMode are facing significant revenue drops, with a 28% year-over-year decline reported for Q3 2025 [4]. K-beauty Market Performance - South Korea's beauty exports to the U.S. reached $1.75 billion in 2025, marking a 13% year-over-year increase, making the U.S. the largest export market for Korean beauty products [5]. - New entrants like APR are gaining market share rapidly, with significant sales growth in the U.S. [5].