天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20260127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: The price of carbonate lithium futures remains strong. Despite a significant pullback in the market yesterday due to profit - taking by high - position funds and stricter exchange supervision, the overall fundamental trend remains upward. The supply is expected to contract in the short term, and the demand is "not weak in the off - season", supporting the strong operation of the futures price [1]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures are oscillating at a high level. The production of leading polysilicon enterprises has been fully shut down, and some enterprises have followed suit to reduce production. High inventory is suppressing the price, and the spot price has been continuously declining. However, manufacturers still have profits [7]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating in a narrow range. It is currently in the (8500 - 9100) oscillation range. The demand side remains weak, and the key is to focus on whether the large - scale production reduction plan on the supply side can be implemented. If implemented, it may break through the oscillation range upward [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The main 2605 contract of carbonate lithium futures rose 8.40% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 179,600 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: The supply is expected to contract due to the delayed resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the annual maintenance plan of some lithium salt plants. The weekly inventory continued to decline last Thursday, and the demand is "not weak in the off - season" [1]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the main 2605 contract are showing strong signals, with the long - short dividing water level at 160,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Maintain the idea of buying on dips. Look for good entry positions according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1]. - Concerns: Whether there is an upgrade in supervision, the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo, and the production arrangement on the demand side [2] Polysilicon - Market Trend: The main 2605 contract of polysilicon futures rose 1.21% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 51,900 yuan/ton [7]. - Core Logic: Leading enterprises have shut down production, and some have reduced production. High inventory is suppressing the price, and the spot price is declining. The full cost is about 44,000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers still have profits [7][9]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycles of the 2605 contract are showing strong signals, with the long - short dividing water level at 48,885 yuan/ton [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: It may oscillate weakly [10]. - Concerns: The latest quotation of silicon material enterprises to downstream [11] Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The 2605 contract of industrial silicon futures fell 0.62% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,860 yuan/ton [16]. - Core Logic: It is in the (8500 - 9100) oscillation range. If the production reduction plan of Hesheng Silicon Industry is implemented, the monthly production reduction will reach 65,000 tons, accounting for about 16% of the total output, which will have a greater impact on the short - term supply side. The demand side remains weak [16]. - Technical Analysis: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a red line, red band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,650 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction in the short term, operate after breaking through the range, and wait and see within the range. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator [16]. - Concerns: Whether the large - scale production reduction plan can be implemented [17]