1月全球大类资产策略：全球经济复苏之路开启

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is in a "risk on" phase, with positive performance across major asset classes as of early 2026, following a period of adjustment and recalibration of earnings expectations [3] - The economic recovery is characterized by a rebound in consumer sentiment in the US and signs of stabilization in China, with December PMI indicating a return to above 50, suggesting a recovery phase [10][24] Monetary Policy - A long-term trend of easing monetary policy is observed in the US and Europe, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank having begun rate cuts after a prolonged tightening phase [26] - The US is expected to experience two rate cuts in 2026, with significant political dynamics influencing the timing and extent of these cuts [26][40] Sector Performance - In the context of a "risk on" environment, sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary are expected to outperform, particularly in the A-share market, where high-growth sectors are leading the recovery [6][46] - The valuation of A-shares relative to US stocks has improved, indicating potential for further upside as market sentiment stabilizes [44] Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, combining high-growth technology stocks with dividend-paying stocks to balance risk and return during the ongoing economic recovery [46][48] - The focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors is expected to dominate short-term investment strategies, driven by improving risk appetite and market sentiment [48] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The Chinese Yuan is expected to continue appreciating, benefiting from year-end currency settlement dynamics and a weaker US dollar [2] - Gold and copper prices are projected to reach new highs, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and sustained demand from sectors like AI [2][12]