固定收益市场周观察：结汇如何影响资金面和存单

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of corporate foreign exchange settlement with banks on the capital market is slightly negative, while banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank significantly benefits the capital market. Attention should be paid to changes in the central bank's operations. Foreign exchange settlement can relieve the pressure of insufficient general deposits in banks and support certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates. The key influencing factors are the rhythm of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank and changes in the central bank's investment scale [5][8][10]. - Last week, the bond market continued its recovery, with interest rates, especially long - term yields, dropping rapidly. The stock market sentiment was suppressed, and the central bank's net investment was large. Short - term trading was crowded initially, and then institutions shifted to long - term bonds, driving down long - term interest rates [5][41]. - In terms of high - frequency data, most production - side operating rates declined, demand - side indicators such as passenger car sales and real estate transactions were weak, and price trends were mixed [5][48][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - The impact of foreign exchange settlement on the capital market and CD interest rates is positive. Theoretically, as long as the proportion of banks' foreign exchange settlement with the central bank exceeds the legal deposit reserve ratio (currently 6.3%), foreign exchange settlement benefits the capital market. The actual data also shows a correlation where more foreign exchange settlement leads to a looser capital market [5][10][12]. - Foreign exchange settlement increases the general deposit scale of banks, relieves CD financing pressure, and thus supports CD interest rates [10]. 3.2 This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - This week, China will release January PMI. The US, Canada, and the Eurozone will also announce relevant economic data and central bank decisions [13][14]. - This week, the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is expected to be around 609.3 billion yuan, including 439.3 billion yuan of local bonds and about 170 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds, with no planned issuance of national bonds [14][16]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.3.1 High - Level Open - Market Operations - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a high investment scale. Reverse repurchase investment first increased and then decreased, with a total investment of about 1.18 trillion yuan and a net investment of 229.5 billion yuan. MLF had a maturity of 200 billion yuan last week, and 900 billion yuan was invested, maintaining a high net investment in medium - and long - term liquidity. Considering the maturity of treasury deposits of 150 billion yuan, the total net investment in open - market operations last week was 979.5 billion yuan [20][22]. - The capital market fluctuated significantly, with capital interest rates mostly rising. Repurchase trading volume fluctuated, and overnight interest rates and DR007 both increased [22][23]. - CD prices adjusted according to the market, and secondary yields dropped rapidly. The net financing of CDs last week was - 116.9 billion yuan. The proportion of medium - term CDs increased, and long - term proportions decreased. Secondary yields of most CDs declined [29]. 3.3.2 Continued Sharp Decline in Bond Market Interest Rates - Last week, the bond market's recovery sentiment continued, with long - term yields dropping rapidly. The 10 - year treasury bond and CDB active bonds decreased by - 1.1bp and - 2.9bp respectively compared to the previous week. Most yields of interest - rate bonds at various maturities declined, except for the 1 - year treasury bond, which rebounded by about 4bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield had the largest decline, about 4.2bp [5][41]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined, including blast furnace, PTA, and asphalt operating rates, while the semi - steel tire operating rate increased. The daily average crude steel output in early January had a narrowing year - on - year decline [48]. - On the demand side, passenger car wholesale and retail sales continued to have a large year - on - year decline. The real estate market was weak, with a significant year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing. Export indices also decreased [48]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices continued to rise, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices showed different trends. The prices of mid - stream building materials declined, and the prices of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork showed different changes [49].