Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-27 15:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) [2][8] Core Views - Anta Sports plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for approximately €1.51 billion (about 12.28 billion RMB), representing a 62% premium over PUMA's previous closing price [8] - The acquisition aligns with Anta's strategy of "single focus, multi-brand, globalization," enhancing its brand matrix and global competitiveness [8] - PUMA's established brand presence and market positioning in various sports categories complement Anta's existing brands, potentially accelerating growth and resource synergy [8] - The acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, pending regulatory approvals, and will not affect Anta's annual dividend policy due to its strong cash position [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2024: 70.826 billion RMB - 2025: 78.479 billion RMB (growth rate of 10.8%) - 2026: 86.250 billion RMB (growth rate of 9.9%) - 2027: 94.396 billion RMB (growth rate of 9.4%) [2][9] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 15.596 billion RMB - 2025: 13.139 billion RMB (decline of 15.8%) - 2026: 14.140 billion RMB (growth of 7.6%) - 2027: 15.846 billion RMB (growth of 12.1%) [2][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 5.58 RMB - 2025: 4.70 RMB - 2026: 5.06 RMB - 2027: 5.67 RMB [2][9] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at: - 2024: 13x - 2025: 15x - 2026: 14x - 2027: 12x [2][9] Market Positioning - PUMA is expected to rank third globally in sports brands with a 2.5% market share by 2024, following Nike and Adidas [8] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance Anta's global strategy, leveraging PUMA's strengths in Europe, Latin America, and emerging markets [8]