海外市场点评：美国政府还会再度停摆吗？

Government Shutdown Probability - The probability of a government shutdown in the U.S. has risen to nearly 80% as the deadline for temporary funding approaches at the end of January 2026[6] - The current political divide centers around funding for the Department of Homeland Security, contrasting with the previous shutdown in October 2025, which was primarily about healthcare provisions[6] Legislative Process and Challenges - Out of 12 spending bills required to avoid a shutdown, 6 have passed both houses, while the remaining 6 are pending approval, covering critical areas such as national security and education[6] - The Democratic Party has expressed strong opposition to funding for the Department of Homeland Security, demanding reforms to limit ICE's enforcement actions, which complicates negotiations[6] Public Opinion and Political Dynamics - A recent poll indicates that 46% of Americans support abolishing ICE, with 77% among core Democratic voters, influencing the party's stance on negotiations[6] - The Democratic Party is attempting to separate contentious funding issues to ensure 96% of government funding remains operational, but this conflicts with Republican demands for a comprehensive package[6] Economic Impact and Risks - Even if a shutdown occurs, its duration and impact are expected to be less severe than the 43-day shutdown in October 2025 due to various political pressures and upcoming midterm elections[8] - Key risks include delays in critical economic data releases, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which could create uncertainty in market decision-making[8] Financial Market Reactions - The previous shutdown in October 2025 saw a significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA), which negatively impacted bank liquidity and risk assets[8] - Recent geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. trade policy have led to increased market volatility and a rise in precious metal prices as investors seek safe havens[8]