格林大华期货早盘提示-20260128

Group 1: Market Performance - Tuesday saw pressure on the market at the opening with selling, followed by a surge in buying as pressure eased in the afternoon, leading to a quick rebound in growth - related indices and then renewed selling pressure. The semiconductor sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2.89 trillion yuan, showing a contraction compared to the previous period. The CSI 500 index closed at 8,548 points, up 42 points or 0.50%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 8,382 points, up 16 points or 0.20%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,052 points, up 2 points or 0.09%; while the SSE 300 index closed at 4,705 points, down 1 point or - 0.03% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to Sino - Korean semiconductors, science - innovation semiconductors, etc. led the gains, while vaccine, coal, and agricultural ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, automotive chips, cultivated diamonds, etc. led the gains, and coke processing, aquaculture, etc. led the losses [1]. - Net inflows of settlement funds into CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index stock - index futures were 2.8 billion and 1.1 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Important Information - China's commercial space industry faces challenges of urgent satellite applications and insufficient launch capacity. The keys to success are technological innovation (reusable rockets), efficiency improvement (batch production), and industrial ecosystem improvement. Current difficulties include limited launch sites, restricted resources, and insufficient application scenarios [1]. - The cost of the first - stage rocket body accounts for over 70%. Once reusable technology is achieved, the total rocket launch cost can be reduced by 40% - 60%. In 2026, many commercial rockets like Lijian - 2 and Tianlong - 3 are planned to be launched, with more attempts at reusable rockets to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace deployed Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model from the ground to an in - orbit satellite. The whole process of uploading problems to the satellite, in - orbit reasoning by the large - model, and data return to the ground takes less than 2 minutes [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace announced a large - scale "Star Computing" Plan to deploy 2,400 inference - computing satellites and 400 training - computing satellites into 500 - 1000 km orbits, forming a global training - inference computing power network through satellite - to - ground and inter - satellite laser communication networking [1]. - The "Star Computing" Plan aims to achieve a constellation of over a thousand satellites and commercial operation by 2030, with over 95% being inference - computing satellites and on - orbit verification of large - scale training - computing satellites, and full constellation deployment by 2035, mainly serving silicon - based intelligent agents and AI model inference and training in land, sea, air, and space fields [1][2]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs had a total net inflow of $6.83 billion, continuing the 14 - week consecutive inflow trend, though slightly lower than the previous week. Chinese - related ETFs were the most favored, with $1.65 billion flowing into the Chinese market that week [2]. - TianShu Intelligence, a general GPU company, released a four - generation architecture roadmap, aiming to create a new paradigm of AI++ computing power system with the goal of "high - quality computing power" centered on "efficiency, predictability, and sustainability", and expects to surpass NVIDIA's Rubin architecture in 2027 [2]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it could be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron cannot meet global demand, but Chinese competitors may erode their advantages after the market cools down [2]. - Zijin Mining acquired United Gold for 28 billion yuan. United Gold's core assets include the Sadiola Gold Mine in Mali, a gold complex in Ivory Coast, and the Kurmuk Gold Mine in Ethiopia to be put into production in the second half of 2026. As of the end of 2024, United Gold had 533 tons of gold resources with an average grade of 1.48 grams per ton [2]. - Microsoft launched its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, a key step to reduce dependence on NVIDIA chips and more efficiently drive its own services. The chip, manufactured by TSMC using 3 - nanometer technology, has been deployed in a data center in Iowa, marking significant progress in Microsoft's self - developed chip field [2]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, deeply in the "pre - collapse stage" with poor financial conditions and internal conflicts, and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order through civil war or revolution [2]. Group 3: Market Logic - The market situation on Tuesday was characterized by initial selling pressure, followed by a rebound in growth - related indices as buying emerged, and then renewed selling. Guoxing Aerospace's deployment of the large - model to the space computing center, the upcoming maturity of over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents in 2026, SpaceX's plan to achieve full rocket reusability, and high - profile statements from financial institutions all influenced the market [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that profit growth will be the core support for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2026, expecting A - share corporate profit growth to increase from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI, overseas expansion, and "anti - involution" [2]. - UBS indicates that international investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. The proportion of Chinese assets held by the top 40 international investment institutions tracked by UBS has reached a new high since 2023, and active overseas funds have started to increase their positions in Chinese assets [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In 2026, over 50 trillion yuan in long - term fixed - deposits of residents will mature. Portfolio products like FOF and fund investment advisors are expected to be the preferred choices for banks to absorb the matured funds due to their risk - diversification and relatively stable returns [3]. - SpaceX plans to launch the second - generation Starlink cellular system in 2027, aiming for satellite - direct connection services similar to 5G on the ground, requiring the launch of 15,000 new satellites. The system's capacity will increase by over 100 times, and data throughput will increase by over 20 times [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2026, the net inflow of new capital into the Chinese stock market will exceed 3 trillion yuan, including about 2 trillion yuan from individual investors and over 1 trillion yuan from institutional investors [3]. - UBS's communication with overseas clients has heated up. Trading - oriented investors are actively increasing their positions in Chinese assets, and allocation - oriented investors are optimizing the weight of Chinese assets in their global portfolios while monitoring fundamentals and policy implementation [3]. - UBS Wealth Management's Investment Director's Office believes that the upward trend of the Chinese market is likely to continue in 2026, with advanced manufacturing and technological self - reliance becoming new growth engines. Global funds are increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and AI capabilities, valuation attractiveness, and resilience are the common logics. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The RMB is appreciating rapidly, with the offshore RMB exchange rate reaching 6.94, indicating a large - scale return of US dollars hoarded overseas by foreign - trade enterprises. After the New Year's Day, funds are flowing from enterprise accounts to resident accounts and then to securities accounts [3]. - Driven by the wealth effect, a large amount of off - market funds is still flowing in. After continuous selling, the scale of CSI 500 ETF held by policy funds, which was a little over 100 billion yuan, showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - For stock - index futures directional trading, after continuous selling, the selling pressure of policy - held CSI 500 ETF showed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday. Market funds may choose the CSI 500 index, representing mid - cap stocks, as a breakthrough point for an upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are still favored in the long - term [3]. - For stock - index option trading, consider buying far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 1000 index [3].