五矿期货能源化工日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, with Venezuela's production increase in progress and Iran's situation in a state of low - intensity friction, there is a bottom for oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, the chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further production cuts in China [34]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - Market Information: INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.93% decline, at 446.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures of related refined oil closed down 43.00 yuan/ton (1.57%) at 2692.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.35%) at 3165.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels to 203.73 million barrels, a 1.01% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.60 million barrels to 93.96 million barrels, a 1.73% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 96.25 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.29 million barrels to 190.21 million barrels, a 1.22% increase [1]. - Strategy View: With the US energy minister's visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress. Iran's situation is in a state of low - intensity friction. There is a bottom for oil prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot price in Jiangsu changed by 37 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Lunan, - 5 yuan/ton in Henan, 0 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 10 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The main futures contract changed by 25.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2304 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 35 yuan [4]. - Strategy View: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Henan, 20 yuan/ton in Hebei, 0 yuan/ton in Hubei, 0 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 0 yuan/ton in Shanxi, and 0 yuan/ton in the Northeast. The overall basis was reported at - 50 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, closing at 1790 yuan/ton [6]. - Strategy View: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. Rubber - Market Information: The chemical sector was oscillating. Butadiene rubber rose, while RU declined. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes in limited production increase in Southeast Asian rubber forests, seasonal price increase in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes in uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of January 22, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.70%, 0.14 percentage points lower than last week and 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.27%, 0.92 percentage points higher than last week and 5.34 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton (1.3%) increase from the previous month [10][11]. - Strategy View: The chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract fell 48 yuan to 4911 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 201 (+ 8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2475 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 603 (- 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous month; the calcium - carbide - based process was 80%, unchanged from the previous month; the ethylene - based process was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous month. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 million tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 million tons (+ 3.3) [15]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5980 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5990 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the pure benzene basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7649 yuan/ton, a 53 - yuan/ton decline; the basis was 251 yuan/ton, a 103 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 192.75 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 123.3 yuan/ton, an 11.6 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - Strategy View: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. Polyethylene - Market Information: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6899 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 4.51 million tons to 35.03 million tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 2.92 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [22]. - Strategy View: The futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. Polypropylene - Market Information: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6709 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6580 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 3.67 million tons to 43.1 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.08 million tons to 19.39 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 7.06 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [24][25]. - Strategy View: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract fell 236 yuan to 7286 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 27 US dollars to 903 US dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (+ 20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 18). The PX operating load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous month. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted. Overseas, the South Korean GS plant restarted. The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 21.5 million tons of PX to China in the first half of January, a 6.8 - million - ton decline from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a 6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (- 1), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 US dollars (+ 12) [28]. - Strategy View: It is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract fell 180 yuan to 5258 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 125 yuan to 5225 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan (- 14). The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee increased by 17 yuan to 455 yuan, and the on - market processing fee decreased by 25 yuan to 478 yuan [30]. - Strategy View: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract fell 56 yuan to 3938 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 44 yuan to 3843 yuan. The basis was - 119 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 92 yuan (+ 5). The ethylene glycol operating load was 73%, a 1.4% decline from the previous month, of which the synthetic - gas - based process was 79.4%, a 0.8% decline; the ethylene - based process operating load was 69.5%, a 1.7% decline. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal text