Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [10]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production forecasts of the US and Brazil increased slightly month - on - month, and the US export volume decreased slightly. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [14]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in the palm oil production in Malaysia in January, the oil and fat prices rose significantly yesterday. On the other hand, the inventories of the three major domestic oils and fats have been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then try to go long [19]. - For eggs, the pre - holiday stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - month contracts have post - holiday characteristics and may fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations, but after giving profits too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctant - to - sell sentiment caused by the high fat - to - standard pig price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - holiday supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. According to the data released by the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - According to the data released by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in the 2025/2026 season in Brazil was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 23, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, from January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to USDA export sales data, from January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume decreased slightly by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Tuesday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,258 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia from January 1 to 20 decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [16][18]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and rose in others. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.92 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao increased by 0.11 yuan to 3.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was okay, and most industry players purchased and sold according to the market trend. Most industry players still had a bullish sentiment, and it is expected that the national egg price may rise in most areas and remain stable in a few areas in the short term [21][25]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 13.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of the northern breeding side was okay, but there was a certain reluctance to sell in the low - price areas, and the decline of the pig price may narrow. The southern breeding side was active in slaughtering, the market demand was average, and under the influence of oversupply, the pig price may continue to decline [23].
2026-01-28：五矿期货农产品早报-20260128
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-28 01:02