双焦（JM&J）：20260128申万期货品种策略日报-20260128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The night session of the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend yesterday. The total position of coking coal was basically flat compared with the previous period. The supply of coking coal remains relatively loose, while the demand side shows no obvious changes in hot metal production and steel mill coking coal inventory. However, the coking coal inventory of coking plants continued to increase. The current nearly 90% coking coal auction transaction rate reflects the support of downstream pre - holiday rigid demand replenishment for the spot market. Therefore, it is judged that the short - term market will show a volatile trend. Future focus should be on the trend of hot metal production, downstream inventory changes, and the volume of imported coal clearance [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market Data - Coking Coal Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1373.0, 1116.5, and 1195.0 respectively, with price drops of - 30.0, - 43.0, and - 42.5, and decline rates of - 2.14%, - 3.71%, and - 3.43% respectively. Trading volumes were 6182, 832838, and 41697, and open interests were 5009, 513166, and 79492, with open interest increases of 330, 20760, and 1740 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5, with spread changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively [3] - Coke Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1842.0, 1668.0, and 1736.5 respectively, with price drops of - 45.0, - 51.0, and - 52.0, and decline rates of - 2.38%, - 2.97%, and - 2.91% respectively. Trading volumes were 122, 19620, and 837, and open interests were 265, 38429, and 1594, with open interest increases of 89, 6888, and 105 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83, with spread changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [3] Spot Market Data - The current prices of Mongolian No.5 coking coal (port pick - up price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price, Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan Grade - 1 coke, Jinzhong quasi - Grade - 1 coke, and Changjiang Port quasi - Grade - 1 coke were 1234, 1640, 1530, 1800, 1280, and 1450 respectively. The price of Changjiang Port quasi - Grade - 1 coke decreased by 10, while the others remained unchanged [3] National Industrial Profit Data - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7398.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises achieved a total profit of 2056.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9%; joint - stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 5540.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1%; foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises achieved a total profit of 1744.74 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%. The manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 5691.57 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% [3]