申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber price declined slightly on Tuesday while synthetic rubber remained strong. With domestic rubber-producing areas in a dormant period and Thailand's northeastern region expected to stop tapping in January, and the southern region in peak season, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing. The short-term supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all-steel tire production. The chemical industry has been strong recently, and the short-term rubber price is expected to remain strong [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16,205, 13,085, and 13,045 respectively, with changes of -25, 0, and -220 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of -0.15%, 0.00%, and -1.66% respectively. The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3,120, 3,160, and 40 respectively, with changes of -25, 195, and 220 [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 275,825, 62,894, and 749,819 respectively. The open interests were 13,045, 49,072, and -12,159 respectively, with changes of -220, -5,134, and 10 [2]. Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 15,850, 15,950, and 15,900 respectively, with no change from the previous day. The prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai were 18,450, and the prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15,175 and 15,650 respectively, all with no change [2]. - Downstream Raw Material Prices: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup lump, and Thai latex were 60.6, 53.06, and 57.7 Thai baht per kilogram respectively, with no change from the previous day [2].