有色金属日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting, market volatility has increased. Although sentiment is supported by policies and strategic resource demand, the short - term copper price may be range - bound due to tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories [3][4]. - Aluminum: Despite the accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories, the high price suppressing downstream demand is not a major negative factor in the off - season. With relatively low LME aluminum inventories and high US aluminum spot premiums, and loose domestic and overseas policies, the aluminum price is expected to be strong and range - bound [5][6]. - Lead: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising, high by - product profits suppress the decline of lead concentrate TC. The current industrial situation is weak, but the expected reduction in lead ingot surplus is due to the tightening of recycled smelting raw materials in winter [7][8]. - Zinc: Zinc ore visible inventory is accumulating, and zinc concentrate TC has stabilized. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but concerns about European smelting costs due to rising overseas natural gas prices and the low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios support the zinc price, which is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase [9][10]. - Tin: Short - term tin price trends are determined by futures market capital games. In the context of a strong precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short term [11][12]. - Nickel: Although there is an expected increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not reflected in visible inventories. With the expected reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [13][14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged. With high uncertainty on the supply side and strong support from off - season de - stocking expectations, there is a potential risk of profit - taking and correction, so it is recommended to observe carefully or take a light - position approach [16][17]. - Alumina: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and there are three difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term [19][20]. - Stainless Steel: Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the potential impact on supply from the possible investigation of the Indonesian port logistics, the stainless - steel price is expected to rise, but with high volatility [22][23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: With strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and range - bound [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Market Information - The Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, causing market volatility. The US dollar index weakened, and the copper price declined and then rebounded. The LME 3M copper closed down 1.21% at $13,024 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,560 yuan per ton. LME copper inventories increased by 1,825 tons to 172,350 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 145,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import loss of Shanghai copper spot narrowed to about 650 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,720 yuan per ton, slightly narrowing [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Sentiment is supported by policies and strategic resource demand. The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M copper, it is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The US dollar index declined, gold prices hit new highs, and oil prices rose. The aluminum price fluctuated upwards. The LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at $3,212 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,350 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 15,000 to 717,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 141,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly, and the aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 502,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Despite inventory accumulation, it is not a major negative in the off - season. With low LME inventories and high US spot premiums, and loose policies, the aluminum price is expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,100 - 24,700 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is $3,170 - $3,260 per ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.37% at 17,016 yuan per ton. The LME 3S lead rose $5.5 to $2,032.5 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 213,600 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising, high by - product profits suppress the decline of lead concentrate TC. The industrial situation is weak, but the expected reduction in lead ingot surplus is due to the tightening of recycled smelting raw materials in winter [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.88% at 24,962 yuan per ton. The LME 3S zinc rose $39 to $3,331 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,760 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,300 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - Zinc ore visible inventory is accumulating, and zinc concentrate TC has stabilized. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but concerns about European smelting costs due to rising overseas natural gas prices and the low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios support the zinc price, which is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase [10]. Tin Market Information - On January 27, the tin price rose and then fell. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 451,160 yuan per ton, up 6.07%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 71 tons to 8,553 tons. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to tight scrap tin raw materials and high - price观望 by downstream. The downstream inventory is low, and the acceptance of the tin price is increasing [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term tin price trends are determined by futures market capital games. In the context of a strong precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $52,000 - $58,000 per ton [12]. Nickel Market Information - On January 27, the nickel price fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 146,370 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The spot premiums of different brands were stable. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although there is an expected increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not reflected in visible inventories. With the expected reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to observe. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M nickel, it is $16,000 - $19,000 per ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 169,666 yuan, up 0.52%. The LC2605 contract closed at 179,600 yuan, up 8.40% [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged. With high uncertainty on the supply side and strong support from off - season de - stocking expectations, there is a potential risk of profit - taking and correction, so it is recommended to observe carefully or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 169,000 - 188,000 yuan per ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - On January 27, the alumina index rose 0.1% to 2,731 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 17,000 to 662,300 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 179 yuan per ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304 per ton, and the import loss was 81 yuan per ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,300 tons to 155,500 tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and there are three difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan per ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,540 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The position decreased by 15,508 to 303,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed. The raw material prices also changed. The futures inventory decreased by 7,180 tons to 38,938 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the potential impact on supply from the possible investigation of the Indonesian port logistics, the stainless - steel price is expected to rise, but with high volatility. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan per ton [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.2% at 23,055 yuan per ton. The position increased to 17,900 lots, and the trading volume was 15,500 lots. The domestic three - place inventory slightly decreased to 41,700 tons [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - With strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and range - bound [26].