五矿期货黑色建材日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, production increased against the seasonal trend, apparent demand continued to weaken, and inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - level is currently in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils, the possible marginal strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The shipment volume from Australia increased, while that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, and Vale's decreased slightly. Shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from the high level. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills continued to improve. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The supply pressure decreased marginally, but the inventory structure problem remained unsolved. The price decline led to pre - holiday purchases by steel mills, providing some support. The iron - making resumption rhythm was affected by safety inspections. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, last week's explosion at Baogang Plate Mill led to production shutdowns and inspections, suppressing the iron - making resumption process and dragging down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the long - position trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the current market contradictions are concentrated in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black sector currently lacks capital interest. The supply - demand pattern of silicomanganese is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector and the cost - push from manganese ore for silicomanganese and the supply contraction for ferrosilicon [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, last week's accident led to production shutdowns and inspections, suppressing the iron - making resumption process and dragging down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a rebound. In the future, the long - position trend of commodities is expected to continue, but the black sector lacks capital interest. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. The short - term restocking may not drive prices strongly. The price of Australian coal has risen significantly, and although the direct impact on China is limited, it may boost market sentiment. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, it closed down with fluctuations yesterday. The supply decreased last week, and the demand was weak. If the production cut of a large Xinjiang factory is implemented, the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production cut of the large factory and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [19]. - For polysilicon, the "anti - involution" expectation in the industry is unclear. The spot market is in a stalemate, with downstream silicon wafer manufacturers delaying purchases. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. The futures trading volume and liquidity have fallen to a relatively low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. - For glass, the market sentiment was weak last week. Affected by insufficient downstream orders, weak restocking willingness, and the approaching Spring Festival, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory in most areas accumulated slightly or remained stable. The market lacks positive drivers, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [24]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern was generally loose last week. The supply was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. The market lacks positive drivers, and the futures and spot markets are in a weak - oscillation state. The price is expected to continue to run weakly in the short term [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3126 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 17,283 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main - contract position was 1.7147 million lots, down 16,197 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3289 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 179,126 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main - contract position was 1.5084 million lots, down 6369 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change; that in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 788.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.45% (+3.50). The position changed by +2878 lots to 571,100 lots. The weighted position was 924,200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.72 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.82% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes - On January 27, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 0.17% at 5818 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 92 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.43% at 5604 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 146 yuan/ton over the futures price [9]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Quotes - On January 27, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 3.71% at 1116.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, down 1.4 yuan/ton, and the converted futures price was 1398.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 282 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the converted futures price was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 167.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Jinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the converted futures price was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 92.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1668.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the converted futures price was 1704 yuan/ton, with a premium of 36 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the converted futures price was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 42.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.62% (-55). The weighted contract position changed by -12,339 lots to 385,097 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 340 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis after conversion was -10 yuan/ton [18]. - For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,900 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.21% (+620). The weighted contract position changed by -162 lots to 75,994 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, down 1.75 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 1.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 600 yuan/ton [20]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes - For glass, on Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract closed at 1066 yuan/ton, down 1.93% (-21). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged. On January 23, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million boxes, up 202,800 boxes (+0.38%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 19,704 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 24,416 lots [24]. - For soda ash, on Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton, down 0.91% (-11). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1154 yuan, down 11 yuan from the previous day. On January 23, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (-3.42%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, down 41,300 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 824,500 tons, down 12,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 7794 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 10,175 lots [25].