Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-28 01:22Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is on a downward trend due to consecutive wrong policies in the US [4]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warns that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, having deeply entered the "pre - collapse stage" and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order [1]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs have seen a total of $6.83 billion in capital inflows, with Chinese - related ETFs being the most favored. $1.65 billion flowed into the Chinese market last week [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace has deployed the Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model to an orbiting satellite [1]. - Microsoft has released its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, marking significant progress in its self - developed chip field [1]. - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the launch of the server CPU "Vera" to solve the CPU bottleneck in the AI supply chain [1]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it may be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Samsung and SK Hynix doubled the price of low - power DRAM supplied to Apple in Q1, and prices may rise further in the second half of the year [1]. - Zijin Mining acquired Allied Gold for $28 billion, with Allied Gold having 533 tons of gold resources as of the end of 2024 [1]. Global Economic Logic - The US is facing a high risk of civil war, and the global political order has entered a chaotic period, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2]. - There are speculations about the possibility of a "Plaza Accord 2.0", and the uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" [2]. - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and purchase $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [2]. - The decline in gambling revenue in Las Vegas is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The US will adjust its economic relations with China and revive its economic autonomy [2]. - The K - shaped differentiation of consumers in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2]. - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a significant increase of 27% - 37% year - on - year, indicating the continued AI boom [2]. - SpaceX hopes to achieve full rocket reusability this year, which will reduce the cost of space access by 100 times [2].