能源化策略：中东局势仍存在不确定性，化?逐步进?季节性淡季延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East situation remains uncertain, and the chemical industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, continuing to fluctuate. Crude oil is still affected by geopolitics, and the relationship between the US and Iran is a focus of the crude oil market. The increase in US natural gas and middle - distillates due to the cold wave has temporarily stopped, and coal prices are likely to be dragged down by weakening demand [1]. - The chemical industry showed high volatility on Tuesday. Styrene and polyolefins generally remained strong, while polyester chain varieties declined significantly. The current inventory build - up in the chemical industry chain is a seasonal one, and investors should view the chemical industry with a fluctuating mindset [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm [1][5]. - Main Logic: Concerns about the Iranian situation, the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield, and the US cold wave have pushed up supply concerns. Although the API data showed a decrease in US crude and gasoline inventories last week, the high inventory of US petroleum products indicated by EIA data is still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The current crude oil market supply is still in surplus, and the short - term rhythm is dominated by the Iranian situation [5]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia may potentially disrupt supply expectations frequently, and the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield also provides short - term support [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: Asphalt futures prices fluctuate following crude oil [7]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the US is cooperating with Venezuela to increase its oil production, which will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply and a significant negative impact on asphalt. The repeated US - Iran situation provides cost - side support for asphalt futures prices. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating [7]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in the over - valued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Part of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined [7]. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The US welcomes Iran to negotiate, causing part of the fuel - oil geopolitical premium to decline. In the long - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle - East are negative factors [7]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The sharp rise in natural gas may support low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. - Main Logic: The significant increase in US natural gas prices drives the crack spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel - oil power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation makes it follow crude - oil fluctuations [10]. 3.1.5 PX - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has cooled, and PX has reduced positions and declined [13]. - Main Logic: The weak trend of international oil prices and the obvious cooling of the chemical - product sector have led to a significant reduction in PX positions and a decline in price. The weak real - world situation makes it difficult to support high prices, and upstream raw materials face short - term correction pressure due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [13]. - Outlook: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,200 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to remain within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [13]. 3.1.6 PTA - Viewpoint: Suppressed by the weakening of commodities, TA has significantly reduced positions and declined [14]. - Main Logic: The cooling of the commodity market sentiment has led to a significant reduction in PTA positions and a decline. There are no significant changes in the supply and demand side, but the downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the seasonal inventory build - up pressure of PTA has increased. The PTA price spread and month - to - month spread are both weak, and the market is worried about the inventory build - up pressure around the Spring Festival. The PTA disk profit has corrected from a high level [14]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 month - to - month spread, and the short - term PTA processing fee may correct to some extent. The industry can choose to hedge to lock in production profits [15]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The game between expectations and reality is intertwined, and pure benzene fluctuates [16]. - Main Logic: The recent rise is due to downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene and the supplementary rise in the context of the long - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Pure benzene is in a transition period where the fundamentals may change, and the real - world pressure is still large. Although the supply - demand gap from January to February is still positive, it is expected to achieve a small inventory reduction in March [17]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. High inventory still needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals in the first quarter are improving quarter - on - quarter. It is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical commodities [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - Viewpoint: Driven by capital behavior and export stories, styrene has risen recently [18]. - Main Logic: The recent strong rise of styrene is due to capital behavior under the expectation of the long - cycle bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of the commodity - market sector. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the inventory - build - up expectation in January has turned into inventory reduction. The seasonal inventory - build - up height in February is also expected to decrease [18]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. Although there is a tendency for profit compression during the seasonal inventory build - up, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: Lack of confidence among bulls and no continuous positive factors, ethylene glycol has adjusted and corrected [19]. - Main Logic: The poor commodity sentiment has led to a high - level correction in the polyester chain. Bulls in ethylene glycol lack confidence, and the real - world inventory build - up pressure is huge. The supply reduction is slow, and multiple sets of equipment are still in the process of resuming production. Coupled with the accelerating production cuts of downstream polyester factories, the high inventory suppresses the upward price elasticity [20]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment within the range of [3,800 - 4,050] yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the operation within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for EG05 - 09 [20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: Cost support has collapsed, and terminal demand has declined [21]. - Main Logic: The sharp decline in the prices of upstream polyester raw materials has led to the collapse of cost support, and the price of short - fiber has followed the cost decline. The terminal has gradually entered the shutdown stage, and the subsequent operating rate of spinning mills will also gradually decline. Without new positive factors, the market may weaken and consolidate in the near future [22]. - Outlook: The price of short - fiber will follow the upstream for consolidation, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - Viewpoint: It fluctuates following costs, and the support for the lower limit of profit has increased [23]. - Main Logic: The short - term poor performance of raw - material prices and the general commodity sentiment have led to a downward shift in the center of the polyester bottle - chip price. The processing fee has slightly retracted, but the supply of some goods is tight, and the short - term downward space of the polyester bottle - chip market is limited [23]. - Outlook: The absolute value fluctuates following raw materials, and the support for the lower limit of the processing fee has increased [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - Viewpoint: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and methanol fluctuates within a range [25]. - Main Logic: On January 27, 2026, methanol fluctuated weakly. The fundamental situation of oversupply in the inland market remains unchanged, and the inventory of ports has returned to the accumulation trend. The coastal market is affected by high port inventories, and the inventory - reduction pressure has further increased. Although the overseas situation is uncertain, the short - term trading may still be mainly based on the overseas situation [26]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. The Iranian situation is still undecided, and there is still uncertainty in overseas equipment disruptions. Although the actual support is limited in the fundamentals after excluding overseas factors, the short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on the progress of the overseas situation, and the disk may still have upward space, generally showing a range - bound fluctuation [26]. 3.1.13 Urea - Viewpoint: Orders are accumulating before the Spring Festival, and urea fluctuates and consolidates [27]. - Main Logic: On January 27, 2026, the supply was sufficient as the daily output increased. The demand side showed that agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand was appropriate as the Spring Festival approached, while industrial demand was mainly cautious and small - scale. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, and the spot market had new orders, with the overall urea market still in consolidation and a slightly stronger tendency [27][30]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. Currently, it is the stage of order accumulation for urea enterprises before the Spring Festival. The price is not suitable for significant increases for order collection, while there is emotional and demand support at the lower price level. The short - term market will fluctuate slightly, waiting for the completion of enterprise orders before there may be a change [27]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - Viewpoint: Driven by raw - material and macro factors, the upward space of plastics is limited [32]. - Main Logic: On January 27, the plastics main contract fluctuated. The oil price fluctuated, and the US crude - oil production was affected by the cold wave but the impact was short - term. The high inventory of US petroleum products was still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The increase in natural - gas prices driven by the cold wave had limited sustainability. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods were repaired, but the spot - price increase was limited. The demand for plastics was in the off - season, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support in the future [32]. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.1.15 PP - Viewpoint: Slight increase in maintenance, and the upward space of PP is limited [33]. - Main Logic: On January 27, the PP main contract fluctuated. The oil - price situation was similar to that of LLDPE, and the profits of various PP production methods were repaired, limiting the upward space. The PP downstream was in the off - season, and the trading volume had recently decreased. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence was slightly restored, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The short - term maintenance support still existed, and future attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.1.16 PL - Viewpoint: Supply is tight, and PL fluctuates [34]. - Main Logic: On January 27, the PL main contract fluctuated. The PDH maintenance expectation still provided support. The overall propylene supply was tight, and enterprise inventories were low, with some offers continuing to rise. The downstream buying was active, and the actual - order auction premium still existed, pushing up the transaction center. The short - term powder - material profit fluctuated slightly, and the downstream demand in the off - season provided limited support [34]. - Outlook: Short - term fluctuation [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - Viewpoint: Supported by low valuation, PVC fluctuates [39]. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the low - price "export - grabbing" of PVC still exists, and the decline in caustic - soda prices has dragged down the comprehensive profit of PVC's chlor - alkali. The upstream production is normal, the downstream start - up will seasonally weaken, the export volume continued to increase last week, the calcium - carbide supply decreased while demand increased, and the caustic - soda supply and demand were weak, with the PVC dynamic cost rising [39]. - Outlook: Fluctuation. In the short term, the "export - grabbing" and low - valuation of PVC support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the market will fluctuate [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic - soda positions should be closed at low prices [40]. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the weak situation of caustic soda continues, the inventory is still accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, the Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, the new alumina production capacity in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will marginally boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum start - up is weakening, the upstream production has little change, and the short - term liquid - chlorine price is stable but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, with the dynamic cost of Shandong caustic soda rising [40]. - Outlook: Weak fluctuation. Before the Spring Festival, upstream enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the caustic - soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid - chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, caustic - soda short positions should be closed at low prices [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Cross - Period Spread: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [42]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest basis values, changes, and the quantity of warehouse receipts [43]. - Cross - Variety Spread: The cross - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided for this part in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on January 27, 2026, was 2,499.53, a decrease of 0.14%. The commodity 20 - index was 2,875.98, a decrease of 0.12%, and the industrial - product index was 2,357.14, a decrease of 0.54% [286]. - The energy index on January 27, 2026, was 1,138.61, with a daily decline of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 2.69%, a 1 - month increase of 3.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.79% [288].