贵金属策略日报：“银”位震荡运，波动险加剧-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are operating in high - level oscillations, with increased volatility risks. Gold remains strong due to safe - haven and allocation demand, while silver needs to be cautious of retracement risks after a rapid rise [1]. - Gold maintains resilience at high levels, with its safe - haven and allocation attributes being dominant. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the amplifying effect of risk events on volatility [1]. - Silver has entered a rhythm - repair phase after a rapid rise. Although it still has price elasticity, the retracement risk increases under high - volatility conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Gold - Logic: In the context where precious metals are in the spotlight, gold gets strong support in the high - level range. During the Asian session, due to Trump's remarks on South Korea's tariffs, regional market uncertainty increased, equity assets were under pressure, and gold and silver rose slightly, reflecting the marginal return of safe - haven demand. Compared with other precious metals, gold's price is more stable, with a significantly lower volatility than silver, and allocation - type funds regard gold as a priority choice, supporting its strength at high levels [1]. - Outlook: In an environment of rising global uncertainty and repeated switching of risk preferences, the safe - haven and allocation value of gold still has resilience. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility caused by geopolitical and trade policy disturbances, but the medium - term support logic remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Logic: After the previous sharp rise, the market is divided on the short - term sustainability of silver. From the capital side, the global silver ETF holdings decreased by about 2.4% this month when the price hit a new high, the largest monthly decline since 2022, indicating that some allocation - type funds have started to take profits and wait and see. In terms of inventory, the silver inventory in COMEX warehouses dropped to the lowest level since March last year after the tariff expectations cooled down, falling for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting that the phased hoarding formed due to policy expectations is being digested. From the demand structure, about half of silver's demand comes from the industrial end. After the price enters the three - digit range, downstream enterprises may adjust through technology or postpone procurement to cope with the high - price environment, which restricts short - term demand. At the same time, the single - day increase of silver has reached the historical fluctuation range many times, and the volatility has disturbed ETFs and some professional investors, but it has not completely changed the trend - trading pattern [2]. - Outlook: In the medium - term, silver can still benefit from the macro - narrative and safe - haven environment dominated by gold, but in the short - term, it is more likely to digest the excessive rise through high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the trading rhythm during the decline of volatility [2]. Commodity Index - Specialty Index: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial products index is 2369.84, up 0.40%; the PPI commodity index is 1461.06, up 0.19% [42]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 26, 2026, was 4916.75, with a daily increase of 4.46%, a 5 - day increase of 10.89%, a 1 - month increase of 25.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 28.57% [43].