格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation, and the impact of stock indices should be continuously monitored [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened roughly flat, with most showing narrow - range horizontal fluctuations. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.33%, while the 10 - year T2603, 5 - year TF2603, and 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, down from 1.42% the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.58%, up from 1.57% the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.64 basis points to 1.41%, 5 - year bonds rose 0.40 basis points to 1.60%, 10 - year bonds rose 0.69 basis points to 1.83%, and 30 - year bonds fell 1.50 basis points to 2.29% [1] - Economic data: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 7,398.2 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase from the previous year. The operating income was 139.2 trillion yuan, a 1.1% increase from the previous year. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.3% year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% year - on - year increase, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded 0.8 percentage points from November. In December last year, the year - on - year sales volume and housing prices of domestic real estate continued to decline, and the data in the first half of January this year also showed the same trend. On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would remain at a necessary level. Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, fell rapidly in the morning to find the bottom and then rebounded, and flattened after a slight rebound in the afternoon, closing up 0.14% from the previous trading day with a trading volume of 2.92 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day's 3.28 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]