国新国证期货早报-20260128

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 27, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 4139.90, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14329.91, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.71% to 3342.60. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2921.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 359.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4705.69, a decrease of 1.27 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Black Futures - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1670.5, a decrease of 47.1. The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. Due to high coal prices, coke enterprises' profits are generally in a loss state, and the demand for coke may further weaken [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1123.8 yuan, a decrease of 33.7. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 57 yuan to 1483 yuan/ton. The demand of downstream coke enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - Sugar: Affected by the increase in Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of January, the US sugar stabilized and oscillated. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated narrowly and closed slightly lower [4]. - Natural rubber: Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber continued its narrow - range oscillation. The total inventory in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with a 5.03% decrease in bonded warehouses and a 0.95% increase in general trade warehouses [4][5]. - Soybean meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.71% to 1060.5 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 fell 0.11% to 2766 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will be loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - Pig: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 fell 1.57% to 11285 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is still large in the medium term, although the demand has increased [5]. - Palm oil: The palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9238 yuan, a 1.61% increase. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 decreased by 9.41% compared to the same period last month [5]. 2.3. Metal Futures - Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper (2603) closed at 102600 yuan/ton. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppressed copper prices, while the low TC at the mine end and tight inventory provided support [5]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14655 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory increased by 61 lots, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [5]. - Iron ore: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down 0.51% to 788 yuan. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [6]. - Aluminum oxide: The ao2605 contract closed at 2734 yuan/ton. The oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the cost reduction weakens the support [6]. - Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 24305 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment cooled, the supply was stable, the social inventory increased, and the demand continued to shrink [6]. 2.4. Other Futures - Asphalt: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up 0.31% to 3279 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory accumulates slightly, and the demand is weak [6]. - Log: The main contract of log 2603 opened at 776.5, closed at 775.5, and decreased by 141 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [6]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The steel demand continued to shrink, and the steel price may adjust narrowly in the short term [6].