国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to reach a new high, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are likely to be strong due to the decline of the US dollar. Zinc and tin are expected to trade in a high - level range. Lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Aluminum is expected to perform strongly, with an increase in alumina maintenance. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and palladium is expected to rise slowly. The situation of nickel in Indonesia remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices are supported by the rise of ferronickel due to concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: For gold, Comex gold 2602 rose 2.11% to 4938.40, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell 0.49% to 1083.56. For silver, Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51% to 96.215, and Shanghai silver 2602 rose 0.82% to 23370. Gold ETF holdings increased by 2 to 1079.66. Shanghai gold inventory increased by 2019 to 102009 kg, and Comex gold inventory (previous day) increased by 6979 to 36142880 troy ounces. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 11727 to 589052 kg, and Comex silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 4162840 to 422313658 troy ounces [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump downplayed the risk of dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to the lowest level since May 2014. The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise 3% and spot gold to rise over 2%. The US government shutdown is approaching [4][6][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Copper - Fundamental Data: Shanghai copper's main contract closed at 102600, up 0.71%, and the night - session price dropped 1.01% to 101560. London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13024, down 1.21%. Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 406 to 144908, and London copper inventory increased by 1825 to 172350 [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating TC/RC for 2026. A Chilean copper mine was fined, and a copper - gold mine in northern Chile stopped production. Road blockades at some mines in Chile were lifted [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [13]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: Shanghai zinc's main contract closed at 24950, up 0.91%. London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3351, up 2.51%. Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 624 to 28312 tons, and London zinc inventory decreased by 775 to 110550 tons [14]. - News: The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in January, and there is uncertainty about future rate cuts [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Lead - Fundamental Data: Shanghai lead's main contract closed at 17000, down 0.41%. London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2036, up 0.05%. LME lead inventory decreased by 2425 to 211175 tons [17]. - News: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week [18]. - Trend Intensity: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Tin - Fundamental Data: Shanghai tin's main contract closed at 451160, up 6.07%, and the night - session price dropped 3.26% to 436450. London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54865, up 0.68%. Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71 to 8553 [21]. - Macro and Industry News: US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since 2014. The Japanese finance minister said that they will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions on exchange - rate fluctuations if necessary [21][23]. - Trend Intensity: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24305, up 90. LME aluminum 3M closed at 3213, up 17. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 79.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The average domestic alumina price was 2649, down 4 [24]. - Comprehensive News: UBS said that rising metal and memory prices will erode the profits of electric vehicle enterprises. The US government shutdown is approaching [26]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [26]. Platinum and Palladium - Macro and Industry News: Trump said he is not worried about dollar depreciation. The "Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path of resuming rate cuts is unclear. Trump said the US has sent a large naval fleet towards Iran. The Hungarian central bank governor said Hungary may consider increasing the proportion of gold in central bank reserves [31]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: Shanghai nickel's main contract closed at 146110, up 730. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14540, down 105 [33]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target and benchmark price formula. Some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation [33][34][36]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [38].