格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of the vegetable oil and two - meal sectors. For the vegetable oil sector, due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, winter storms affecting crude oil production, and the upcoming US bio - fuel policy, the prices of palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, and rapeseed oil has bottomed out and stabilized. It is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset and hold long positions. For the two - meal sector, there is a short - term rebound, but considering factors such as the expected high yield in South America, the rebound space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for opportunities to short after the market returns to fundamentals [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 27, due to geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of the expectation of rising international crude oil prices, the vegetable oil sector continued to rise. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different degrees of increase or decrease, and the positions also changed [1] Important Information - International oil prices rose 3% on January 27, affected by a winter storm that reduced crude oil production and exports in the US Gulf Coast. Trump's remarks about sending a "fleet" to Iran also pushed up oil prices, providing support for soybean oil prices [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 bio - fuel blending ratio quota in early March, with the US EPA considering setting the biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026 [1] - From January 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, while the export volume from January 1 - 20 increased by 11.4% compared to the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation increased by about 30 million liters compared to 2025, with the PSO part showing a decline. The B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 58,500 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 2.78% [2] Market Logic - Externally, the winter storm tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, driving up the prices of US soybean oil and palm oil. Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative news, but the soybean supply for oil mills was sufficient; for palm oil, after the release of negative data, the market focused on the US bio - fuel policy and improved export data; for rapeseed oil, due to factors such as the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, US tariff threats to Canada, and Spring Festival stocking, the price soared. Overall, the US bio - fuel policy and the macro - economic environment of expected inflation strengthened the financial attributes of vegetable oils [2] Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, continue to hold long positions in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage, there are no trading strategies provided Two - Meal Sector Market Review - On January 27, due to macro - narrative promotion, the prices of two - meal contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease, and the positions also changed [2] Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean export volume of Brazil in January 2026 is 3.79 million tons, a 238% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The predicted soybean output of Brazil in the 2025/26 season by StoneX is 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 82%, and the growth condition was good [3] - The predicted soybean export volume of Brazil in 2026 is 105 million tons, a 3% decrease compared to the previous prediction, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase compared to last year [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 41,200 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 4.35%, and the contract volume decreased by 762,200 tons, a decrease of 13.24% [3] - The national grain trading center's soybean auction on January 13 had a 100% transaction rate [3] Market Logic - Externally, the weakening of the US dollar boosted the price of US soybeans, but the expected high yield in South America and high crushing profits limited the upward space of the futures price. Domestically, the inventory of oil mills decreased, and affected by the tense Sino - Canadian trade relationship and the release of market sentiment, Zhengzhou meal rebounded. However, due to the lack of substantial demand before the Spring Festival and the weak rise of Dalian soybean meal, the rebound space of Zhengzhou meal is limited [4] Trading Strategy - Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of two - meal with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - For arbitrage, there are no trading strategies provided