20260128申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260128

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The copper price closed lower overnight The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss Although the smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow strongly The power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak The supply disruption in the copper mine has led to an expected supply - demand deficit globally After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased adjustment [2] - The zinc price closed higher overnight The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to grow The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in non - ferrous metals, the zinc price may experience a phased adjustment [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog (Market Data) - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 102,280 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 13,024 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 93.80 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 170,525 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 1,175 tons [2] - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,230 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,213 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 5.71 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 505,275 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 2,000 tons [2] - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,895 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,359 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 111,325 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 175 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 146,110 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,370 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 18,235 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 214.32 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 285,552 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was 1,824 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,935 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 140 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,028 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 47.43 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 213,600 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 1,575 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 450,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 12,000 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 54,865 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 244.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 7,065 tons, and the daily change of LME inventory was - 130 tons [2]