国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: There is still rigid demand, and the price fluctuates [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Wide-range fluctuations [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The raw material prices are loosening in the short term, with wide-range fluctuations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal: With the combination of industry and funds, they fluctuate within a range [2][13][14]. - Steam coal: Supply and demand tend to be weak, and the coal price stabilizes with a slight upward exploration [2][18]. - Logs: Fluctuate within a range [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of I2605 was 788.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45%. The positions increased by 2,878 hands to 571,053 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 879.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 20, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous month [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.79%; the closing price of HC2605 was 3,289 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The positions of RB2605 decreased by 16,197 hands to 1,714,659 hands, and those of HC2605 decreased by 6,369 hands to 1,508,428 hands [6]. - Macro and Industry News: In mid-January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 1979 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 197.9 million tons, a 0.9% decrease in daily output month-on-month; 1794 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 179.4 million tons, a 1.8% increase in daily output month-on-month; and 1877 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 187.7 million tons, a 3.0% increase in daily output month-on-month. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 1613 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten-day period [7]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5604 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 was 5586 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2603 was 5780 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2605 was 5818 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 27, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton (+50). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton (-25) [10]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing price of JM2605 was 1116.5 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or 3.7%; the closing price of J2605 was 1668 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan or 3.0%. The positions of JM2605 increased by 20760 hands to 513166 hands, and those of J2605 increased by 1859 hands to 38429 hands [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 27, the CCI metallurgical coal index: CCI Shanxi low-sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1627 (-); CCI Shanxi medium-sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1260 (-); CCI Shanxi high-sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1249 (-). The online auction listing volume of coking coal was 15.81 million tons, with a non - sale rate of 32%, a 12% decrease from the previous day, and an average premium of 31.18 yuan/ton [14]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17]. Steam Coal - Fundamentals: The price of Datong南郊 steam coal Q5500 was 564.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan month-on-month and down 58.0 yuan year-on-year. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 was 605.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 11.0 yuan year-on-year [18]. - Macro and Industry News: On January 27, the port market maintained a stable and slightly stronger trend. The port inventory continued to decline. Some market participants believed that as non - power industries gradually took holidays, the demand support might gradually weaken, and the market would tend to run stably later [19]. - Trend Intensity: Not provided in the report. Logs - Fundamentals: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 775.5 yuan, down 0.1% day - on - day and up 1.5% week - on - week. The trading volume of the 2603 contract was 3684, down 27.3% day - on - day and down 56% week - on - week [20]. - Macro and Industry News: China's December RatingDog comprehensive PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line, slightly up from 51.2 in November [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [22].