国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market trends, fundamental data, and news events of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to reach new highs. The Comex gold 2602 contract rose 2.11% to 4938.40. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - Silver: Aiming to reach 100. The Comex silver 2602 contract rose 3.51% to 96.215. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - Platinum: Expected to oscillate upwards. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - Palladium: Slowly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. Base Metals - Copper: With the dollar falling, the price is expected to be strong. The沪铜主力合约 rose 0.71% to 102,600. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - Zinc: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The沪锌主力收盘价 rose 0.91% to 24950. The trend intensity is 0 [16]. - Lead: With the decrease in LME inventory, the price is supported. The沪铅主力收盘价 fell 0.41% to 17000. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The沪锡主力合约 rose 6.07% to 451,160. The trend intensity is 0 [23]. - Aluminum: Expected to run strongly. The沪铝主力合约收盘价 rose 90 to 24305. The trend intensity is 1 [26]. - Nickel: The situation in Indonesia is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. The沪镍主力收盘价 rose 730 to 146,110. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Stainless Steel: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rise in nickel iron prices supports the center of gravity. The不锈钢主力收盘价 fell 105 to 14,540. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. Energy - Crude Oil: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - Natural Gas: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - Coal: - Coking Coal: Expected to oscillate within a range, with industry and capital cooperation. The JM2605 contract fell 3.7% to 1116.5. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - Coke: Expected to oscillate within a range, with industry and capital cooperation. The J2605 contract fell 3.0% to 1668. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - Steam Coal: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise slightly. The产地 price of Datong南郊动力 coal Q5500 rose 2 to 564.0. The trend intensity is not provided [62]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: With the weak dollar and rising US soybean prices, the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate. The DCE豆粕2605 contract rose 0.14% to 2770. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to rebound and oscillate. The DCE豆一2605 contract fell 0.71% to 4364. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - Corn: Expected to oscillate strongly. The C2605 contract fell 0.44% to 2,282. The trend intensity is 1 [162]. - Sugar: Expected to trade in a narrow range. The futures主力价格 fell 4 to 5168. The trend intensity is 0 [165]. - Cotton: Expected to maintain a strong oscillation. The CF2605 contract fell 0.58% to 14,565. The trend intensity is 1 [170]. - Eggs: The spot price is expected to be strong during the pre - holiday peak season. The鸡蛋2602 contract fell 0.49% to 3,050. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - Hogs: The demand performance is lower than expected, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions. The生猪2603 contract fell 1.57% to 11285. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - Peanuts: Expected to oscillate. The PK603 contract rose 0.60% to 8,062. The trend intensity is 0 [183]. Chemicals - PTA: The unilateral trend is expected to be strong. The PTA主力合约 fell 3.31% to 5258. The trend intensity is 1 [67]. - MEG: The trend is still expected to be strong. The MEG主力合约 fell 1.40% to 3938. The trend intensity is 1 [67]. - Rubber: Expected to oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [72]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fall from a high level. The顺丁橡胶主力日盘收盘价 fell 220 to 13,045. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - LLDPE: The US dollar offer is temporarily scarce, and the upstream quotation is firm. The L2605 contract fell 0.52% to 6899. The trend intensity is - 1 [78]. - PP: The C3 raw material is strong, but the profit repair is limited. The PP2605 contract fell 0.42% to 6709. The trend intensity is - 1 [81]. - Caustic Soda: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The 03合约期货价格 is 1951. The trend intensity is 0 [84]. - Paper Pulp: Expected to oscillate. The纸浆主力日盘收盘价 fell 32 to 5.342. The trend intensity is 0 [91]. - Glass: The original sheet price is stable. The FG605 contract fell 0.93% to 1066. The trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate with support. The甲醇主力收盘价 fell 43 to 2,304. The trend intensity is 1 [98]. - Urea: Expected to oscillate with support. The尿素主力收盘价 fell 1 to 1,790. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate strongly. The苯乙烯2603 contract fell 53 to 7,649. The trend intensity is 0 [106]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract fell 0.25% to 1,194. The trend intensity is - 1 [110]. - LPG: The short - term geopolitical disturbance is strong. The PG2602 contract fell 1.67% to 4,291. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - Propylene: The demand support is strong, and the spot price is rising strongly. The PL2603 contract fell 1.14% to 6,248. The trend intensity is 1 [113]. - PVC: Expected to oscillate within a range. The 05合约期货价格 is 4911. The trend intensity is - 1 [121]. - Fuel Oil: The night session oscillates, and the high - volatility trend continues. The FU2602 contract fell 2.67% to 2,702. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Narrowly adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly. The LU2602 contract rose 7.00% to 3,349. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. Others - Shipping Index (European Line): Expected to be in an oscillating market, and beware of repeated geopolitical speculation. The EC2604 contract fell 0.11% to 1,193.9. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - Short - Fiber: Expected to have a short - term correction and oscillate at a high level. The短纤2603 contract fell 164 to 6662. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - Bottle Chip: Expected to have a short - term correction and oscillate at a high level. The瓶片2603 contract fell 174 to 6262. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - Offset Printing Paper: Suggested to sell on rallies and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The OP2603.SHF contract rose 4 to 4148. The trend intensity is 0 [145]. - Pure Benzene: Expected to oscillate strongly. The BZ2603 contract fell 88 to 5990. The trend intensity is 0 [149]. - Palm Oil: The high - level volatility intensifies, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. The棕榈油主力收盘价 rose 1.61% to 9,238. The trend intensity is 0 [154]. - Soybean Oil: The trading idea of the oil - meal ratio is maintained. The豆油主力收盘价 rose 0.39% to 8,258. The trend intensity is 0 [154].