格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the outer - market ICE raw sugar failed to break through the 15 - cent per pound pressure. Overseas fundamentals have limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak and may fluctuate within a range. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has narrow fluctuations. After the pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, the market trading atmosphere is light. Without unexpected events, the upward pressure on the disk is significant [1]. - For the rubber market, natural rubber has entered a seasonal reduction period, with overseas raw material prices supported by stocking demand. The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has no obvious change, and the Qingdao port continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The short - term disk may be mainly in a strong consolidation. Synthetic rubber has a tight domestic butadiene supply. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, and the BR price has corrected. Affected by the decline in market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - Market Performance: On January 27, 2026, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5168 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 5165 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5185 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 5180 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: The spot price of Guangxi white sugar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 5239 yuan/ton; most of the Guangxi sugar - making group's quotes decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Yunnan sugar - making group's quotes decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotes of processing sugar factories decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some cases. The estimated domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is about 34.35 million tons, and the consumption is about 28.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared with the previous season. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons. In December of the 2025/26 crushing season, the ethanol blending ratio in Indian gasoline reached 20% for the first time. The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 13,715 [1]. - Market Logic: Overseas, the outer - market ICE raw sugar is mainly in a range - bound state. Domestically, the pre - Spring Festival stocking is over, and the market lacks guidance from fundamentals and the outer - market, with significant upward pressure on the disk [1]. - Trading Strategy: For SR605, focus on the range of 5100 - 5300 yuan/ton, and use a short - term trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying [1]. Rubber - Market Performance: As of January 27, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 16,205 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.15%; the closing price of NR2603 contract was 13,085 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.00%; the closing price of BR2603 contract was 13,045 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.66% [4]. - Important Information: The price of Thai raw material glue is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 53.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.03% to 94,500 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.95% to 490,000 tons. The prices of some rubber products changed, and the price difference between RU and NR and the price difference between mixed standard rubber and RU also changed [4]. - Market Logic: Natural rubber is in a seasonal reduction period, with supply shortage expectations. The downstream tire enterprise operating rate is stable, and the Qingdao port continues to accumulate inventory. The short - term disk may be in a strong consolidation. Synthetic rubber has a tight butadiene supply, and the price has corrected after a sharp rise. Affected by market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend [4]. - Trading Strategy: For natural rubber, take profit on long positions or hold and observe the pressure near the previous high. For BR, hold and observe or take partial profit [4].