综合晨报-20260128

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Nighttime oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude approaching $67 per barrel and NTI close to $63 per barrel. Winter storms led to a maximum daily production loss of 2 million barrels in the US, about 15% of the national output. API inventory data showed a drawdown in crude oil, which was bullish. However, the inventory pressure in the global crude oil market in January 2026 was significant, and the long - term factor suppressing oil price increases was the loose supply - demand situation [2]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index hit a four - year low overnight, and precious metals continued to perform strongly. Gold had a solid logic, while silver and platinum had high volatility risks. Attention was paid to the Middle East situation and the Fed meeting guidance [3]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated overnight, but recovered losses in the US session. The LME spot discount widened to $93. Market focus shifted to geopolitical issues, the potential US government "shutdown" at the end of the month, and internal US conflict risks. Copper prices were expected to oscillate at a high level with a tendency to adjust [4]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level overnight. Spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 170 yuan, - 280 yuan, and 165 yuan respectively. Geopolitical games made the financial market sentiment fluctuate. Attention was paid to whether the high - level oscillation range could form a directional breakthrough [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. Due to macro - driving and high prices, the seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum would be weaker than in previous years [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity of domestic alumina remained high, with an increase in maintenance but no long - term production cuts. The alumina balance was in significant surplus. The cash cost support might be below 2,500 yuan. Alumina needed large - scale production cuts to stabilize, and short - selling on rallies was recommended when the basis was low [7]. Zinc - The external market strengthened, driving the domestic market up. The import loss of zinc ingots expanded to over 2,500 yuan per ton. Domestic traders' price - supporting sentiment rose again, and the spot premium stopped falling. High natural gas prices in Europe and the US and low TC pushed up overseas zinc smelting costs, supporting zinc prices at a high level. However, the consumption off - season still restricted the price, and zinc was expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan per ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Lead - Transportation in Central and East China recovered, and primary lead smelters resumed production in late January. With insufficient downstream demand, Shanghai lead prices fell. The import profit of lead ingots narrowed to 86 yuan per ton. As lead prices dropped to 17,000 yuan, downstream inventory - building willingness increased. The refined - scrap spread was 100 yuan per ton, and the loss of recycled lead expanded. Shanghai lead was expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,000 yuan per ton [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a high level with active trading. After the increase in stainless steel spot prices, downstream buyers were cautious, and actual transactions were weak. The inventory of pure nickel increased by 2,700 tons to 66,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory was 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory was basically stable at 844,000 tons. Caution was advised due to the market's fear of high prices [10]. Tin - Overnight, the price fluctuations of domestic and international tin increased. Shanghai tin rose and then fell, with strong volume - price guidance. There had been tin ingot trading on the Indonesian exchange this month, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee increased slightly. The tin market was closely related to silver prices, and the technical pattern was still intact. Cautious trading was recommended [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose again, but market trading declined. Exchange policies affected market participation. High prices might have led to the closing of many hedging positions, with strong spot and speculative long positions being dominant, and the持仓 structure was fragile. The total market inventory decreased by 800 tons to 109,000 tons. The overall de - stocking speed slowed down. Lithium carbonate futures were in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [12]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures oscillated upward, but the spot price declined. The average spot price of N - type re -投料 was 52,500 yuan per ton, down 1,500 yuan per ton from the previous day. The futures - spot spread narrowed. Battery cell prices dropped to 0.47 yuan/W, approaching the cash cost. Battery cell manufacturers were cautious about increasing production in February, mainly focusing on de - stocking. The acceptance of polysilicon price increases by downstream was low, and polysilicon had high inventory pressure. The upward space of polysilicon prices was expected to be limited [13]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon decreased, with production cuts in Inner Mongolia and planned cuts by large factories in Xinjiang at the end of the month. The demand in each sector was weak. The production of polysilicon in February might fall to 90,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon was stable at around 66%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was expected to decline. Industrial silicon inventory increased to 556,000 tons. The industrial silicon market was driven by production cut expectations, and attention was paid to whether it could break through 9,000 yuan per ton. It was expected to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices oscillated weakly overnight. In the off - season, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, production increased, and inventory accumulated. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil both declined slightly, and inventory continued to decrease. Steel mill profits were poor, and downstream acceptance ability was insufficient. The resumption of blast furnace production slowed down, and hot metal production stabilized. Domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The spot supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the market sentiment was volatile. The market was expected to oscillate in a range [15]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Global shipments increased and were stronger than the same period last year. Vale's reservoir had an accident. Domestic arrivals decreased from the high level, and port inventory accumulated significantly. Terminal demand was low in the off - season, and hot metal production was affected by the accident and remained low. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level. The iron ore market was generally loose, but considering the phased inventory - building demand, the price was expected to continue to oscillate [16]. Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. The first round of price increase was shelved, coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was general. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream hot metal production was at an off - season level. It was necessary to observe whether winter inventory - building continued. Steel mills had a strong desire to suppress raw material prices. Coke futures were at a premium, and the price was likely to oscillate downward in the short term [17]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. The prices of most imported coals increased, providing some support to domestic coal prices. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,402 tons. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the spot auction transactions were at a high level. Terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream hot metal production was at an off - season level. It was necessary to observe whether winter inventory - building continued. Steel mills had a strong desire to suppress raw material prices. Coking coal futures were at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price was likely to oscillate downward in the short term [18]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined during the day. Manganese ore spot prices decreased. Manganese ore port inventory might start to accumulate slowly. The mine's shipping volume increased month - on - month, but the mine cost was higher than in previous years, and the price - concession space was limited. Hot metal production was at a seasonal low. The weekly production of silicomanganese changed little. Silicomanganese inventory decreased slightly. Short - selling on rallies was recommended due to oversupply and the influence of "anti - involution" policies [19]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined during the day. The power cost in some production areas decreased, but the semi - coke price increased slightly. The main production areas were still in a loss. Hot metal production was at an off - season level. The export demand was over 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was still resilient. Ferrosilicon supply changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. Short - selling on rallies was recommended due to oversupply and the influence of "anti - involution" policies [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - In the spot market, Maersk's new cabin quotes for Week 7 - Week 9 were 1,200/1,900/2,000 and 1,260/1,995/2,100, with some routes slightly lower than the previous period. Facing the pre - holiday return cargo pressure, spot quotes continued to decline. The new threat from the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea had limited impact on near - month contracts, and the impact on far - month contracts was also expected to be limited. Before the Spring Festival, the market lacked driving forces and was expected to oscillate. After the festival, the focus would be on whether the export tax rebate "roll - back" policy could trigger "rush shipments" and its actual implementation [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Driven by geopolitical factors, bad weather in North America, and the fire at a Kazakhstani oil field, the cost of crude oil increased, driving fuel oil prices up. The uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation provided support for high - sulfur fuel oil. The congestion at the Singapore port made the spot market slightly tight, making fuel oil perform relatively strongly in the oil product system. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Singapore was previously tight but the spot structure changed from premium to discount, indicating a marginal relief of the tight situation. The strengthening of diesel cracking supported the strengthening of low - sulfur cracking. In the medium term, the supply was expected to increase slightly. Fuel oil was expected to continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil, but the differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals still existed [22]. Asphalt - Nighttime oil prices rose sharply, and asphalt followed. Kpler data showed that the shipment of Venezuelan oil to China had decreased significantly since January, and refineries were expected to face problems such as increased costs of alternative raw materials in the later part of the first quarter. The cost - end support made asphalt oscillate strongly [23]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - The spot prices of urea in the mainstream regions were stable with a slight increase. Before the Spring Festival, the industrial downstream demand was expected to decline, and the large - scale spring plowing fertilizer - stocking demand had not started, with only sporadic purchases. The supply pressure remained, and the snow and rain weather affected the transportation in some inland markets. However, downstream enterprises had inventory - building needs before the festival, and the price would continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. Methanol - The overseas methanol plant operating rate remained low, and the coastal demand decreased. The concentrated unloading of foreign vessels led to a slight increase in port inventory. The Ningbo Fude MTO plant restarted over the weekend, but the olefin plants of Sierbang and Shandong Hengtong stopped. The high port inventory might suppress the market. The short - term geopolitical situation was still highly uncertain, and the market was expected to oscillate firmly [25]. Pure Benzene - The import volume of traditional benzene increased, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports increased slightly. The profit of downstream styrene improved, and the operating rate increased, driving up the demand for pure benzene. The short - term geopolitical situation and cost fluctuations were large, and the market might be under pressure as the supply increased [26]. Styrene - The cost end continued to provide support. In terms of supply - demand fundamentals, although some plants resumed production, the domestic supply still decreased, and the downstream demand decreased steadily. As the pre - Spring Festival stocking period was coming to an end, the price was under short - term pressure [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The futures of polypropylene and plastic showed a strong performance, and local downstream inventory - building drove up the buying enthusiasm. Propylene enterprises' inventory was at a low level, and the offers were raised to different extents. The actual order auction premiums were obvious, and the transaction center increased significantly. The futures of plastic and polypropylene showed a top - divergence pattern. For polyethylene, the production enterprise's plant maintenance decreased, and the import resources arrived successively, increasing the market supply pressure. The downstream factories were gradually on holiday, and the production load decreased. For polypropylene, the rising propane and international oil prices strengthened the cost support, and the enterprise's ex - factory prices were continuously raised, boosting the market's high - price atmosphere. However, the new orders were insufficient, and the downstream enterprises were more resistant to high - price raw materials [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices oscillated overnight. The factory inventory decreased, but the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory still had pressure. The number of maintenance increased slightly, and the operating rate decreased slightly. The export orders were good, but the domestic demand was average. The calcium carbide price decreased, weakening the cost support. PVC was expected to reduce production capacity this year, and with possible rush exports, the price center was expected to rise. Caustic soda prices oscillated overnight. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda for Shandong alumina decreased. The industry inventory fluctuated slightly and remained at a high level. The liquid chlorine price was strong, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration was acceptable. The caustic soda operating rate was high. The downstream alumina operating rate remained high, with rigid demand, but the industry was generally in a loss, and it was necessary to continue to track whether there would be production cuts; non - aluminum demand was mainly for rigid purchases. The industry was in a situation of high operating rate and high inventory, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration was expected to be further compressed [29]. PX and PTA - The chemical market declined yesterday, and PX and PTA partially gave back their recent gains. However, the overnight oil price increase slowed down their adjustment. Polyester de - stocked smoothly before the Spring Festival. PX would have new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA had none, so they were recommended for long - position allocation in the first half of the year. However, the current demand was declining, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, with a weak reality. In the second quarter, based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations, opportunities for long - position allocation of PX processing margin on dips and positive spreads after the spread decline could be considered, but it needed the cooperation of downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the post - festival PX and polyester balance [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory increased on Monday compared with last Thursday, and there was an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. Ethylene glycol faced resistance at the 4,000 - yuan integer level and fell back. In the second quarter, there were expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, and the supply - demand situation might improve temporarily. However, due to capacity growth, ethylene glycol was still under long - term pressure, and it was recommended to focus on band trading [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade PET - Short - fiber enterprises had a high operating rate and low inventory. However, the downstream orders were weak, and the profit was thin. As the Spring Festival approached, textile enterprises would gradually go on holiday, and the terminal production tended to stop. Short - fiber prices followed the raw material adjustment. The operating rate of bottle - grade PET decreased, and the processing margin improved under the low - load and relatively low - inventory situation. In the short term, it followed the raw material adjustment and declined. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the post - Spring Festival inventory performance, and spread opportunities could be considered. In the long term, there was still capacity pressure [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices oscillated overnight. The spot price center slightly increased, and the inventory fluctuated slightly. As the downstream was about to go on holiday, there might be inventory accumulation pressure. All three types of fuel production lines were in a loss, and the production capacity changed little recently. The processing orders were still sluggish, with southern orders better than northern ones. As the downstream was approaching the holiday, glass might experience seasonal inventory accumulation, but the current valuation was low, and it might fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production capacity changes [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil futures prices rose, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market varied. The global natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, with the Vietnamese production area gradually stopping production. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants slightly decreased last week, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased again. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires slightly decreased, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to increase significantly. The finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao slightly decreased to 584,400 tons, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,600 tons, and the