2026年01月28日：期货市场交易指引-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - Energy and Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - Government Bonds: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - Rebar: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - Glass: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - Aluminum: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Tin: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - Silver: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - Gold: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - Lithium Carbonate: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - Caustic Soda: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - Rubber: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - Urea: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - Methanol: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - Polyolefins: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - Soda Ash: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - Apples: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - Jujubes: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - Eggs: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - Corn: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - Soybean Meal: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - Oils: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]