格林期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20260128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term, with coking coal continuing its downward structure but having obvious bottom support [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the previous day's daytime session, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1,116.5 yuan/ton, a 3.71% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1,668.0, a 2.97% decline compared to the daytime opening. It closed with a doji star in the previous night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, the steel industry achieved a total profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 299.2%. The coal mining and washing industry achieved a total profit of 352 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.8% [1] - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods, with the automobile tariff gradually dropping from 110% to 10%. The EU will cancel or reduce tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India within 7 years [1] - On January 27, 2026, the auction of Zhongmei Huali Hesheng coking coal (A12 S0.5 V24 G90) in Jinzhong, Shanxi had a starting price of 1,350 yuan/ton and a quantity of 100 tons, and all were sold at 1,378 yuan/ton. In the previous period (January 17, 2026), the starting price was 1,350 yuan/ton, the quantity was 200 tons, and all were sold at 1,369 - 1,391 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly the previous day. On the spot side, the coking coal auction prices were poor, showing a stable - to - decreasing trend. Fundamentally, the winter - storage logic has weakened marginally, the weak fundamentals are apparent, and the weakening speculative sentiment led to an increase in positions and a price decline on the futures market. In the short - term, coking coal will continue its downward structure, but the bottom support is obvious. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term [1] Trading Strategy - The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between the bottom support of 1,100 and the upper limit of 1,170 [1]