中泰期货晨会纪要-20260128

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Fundamental Analysis - Based on fundamental factors, the trend of some commodities is judged. For example, the trend of red dates and eggs is bearish, while the trend of synthetic rubber is bullish [4]. Quantitative Analysis - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some commodities such as soybeans and zinc are judged to be bearish, while the trends of methanol and rubber are judged to be bullish [9]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro News - UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China from January 28 - 31, and high - level meetings will be held to discuss bilateral relations [11]. - Trump's remarks on the US dollar caused the US dollar index to fall by more than 1%, reaching a new low in nearly four years [11]. - A new round of price hikes in the global chip industry, with significant price increases from companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, and domestic companies also raising prices [12]. - The AI assistant Clawdbot has become popular overseas, and domestic AI models are also booming [12]. - In 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing a three - year decline [13]. - The impact of the Indian Nipah virus on China is relatively small, and no cases have been found in China [13]. - China's first interstellar navigation college was officially established [13]. - In 2025, the bank wealth - management market increased by more than 3.3 trillion yuan, while small and medium - sized banks' self - operated wealth management faced scale reduction or elimination [13]. - US population growth slowed down in 2025 due to a significant slowdown in immigration [14]. - Trump decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [14]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement [14]. - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to a new low since 2014 [14]. - Some customers in futures trading were restricted for suspected irregularities [15]. - Citigroup and Deutsche Bank believe that gold may reach $6000 per ounce [15]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The upward trend of IC/IM may continue, and trend - following strategies are recommended. The A - share market showed an oscillating upward trend, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap stocks [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is recommended to wait and see. The capital market has loosened, but the cost of funds is still relatively high, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning loose [19]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - The black market will remain in an oscillating trend. Steel will be in an oscillating and consolidating state in the short term, and iron ore is relatively weak and should be short - sold on rallies [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the production changes in coal mines and the procurement progress of downstream enterprises [23]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron is recommended to be bought on dips in the medium term, and for manganese silicon, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and wait and see [24]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the production changes of the supply side of soda ash and glass [25]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter short positions. The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, but the upward movement of precious metals may be restricted, which may drive the non - ferrous metal sector down [27]. Lead - It is recommended to wait and see and continue to hold short positions. The social inventory of lead has reached a new high in nearly two months [28]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate may move up after a short - term correction, with wide - range oscillations [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will operate in an oscillating manner, and opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound should be awaited. Polysilicon will continue to operate in an oscillating manner, and the anti - monopoly and anti - over - competition rectification plan should be awaited [31]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading. The short - term supply of cotton is loose, but the long - term supply may decrease, and there are contradictions between pre - festival replenishment and declining downstream production [33]. Sugar - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range. Domestic sugar is under pressure from supply and weak demand during the peak season [36]. Eggs - A bearish view is recommended for the current position. The pre - festival egg inventory may peak and weaken, and the futures price has limited upward space [39]. Apples - The futures price may run strongly. The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints, and the price will oscillate in a range [40]. Corn - It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to the port collection situation. The corn price is stable in the short term, and the possibility of a sharp decline before the Spring Festival is low [41]. Red Dates - The red date market will oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Pay attention to the sales situation in the peak consumption season [43]. Pigs - Pay attention to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price, and look for opportunities to short the near - month contracts on rallies [44]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of short - term market fluctuations. The supply of crude oil is in surplus, but geopolitical factors have increased the risk premium [46]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will fluctuate with the price of crude oil. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the current focus is on geopolitical factors [48]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are weak in terms of supply - demand. Although the upstream is in a state of large losses, the rebound space is limited due to the expected new - capacity release [48]. Rubber - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. The fundamentals are stable, and pay attention to the inventory changes and downstream procurement [48]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to buy on dips. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, and the price of synthetic rubber may remain strong [48]. Methanol - It is recommended to take a bearish view on the short - term correction. The supply - demand situation of methanol has improved, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month [48]. Caustic Soda - A bearish view is recommended for the near - month contracts, and a bullish view for the far - month contracts. The caustic soda market has high inventory and low profit, but there may be a turnaround in the far - month [50]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt will fluctuate with the price of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical factors and raw - material price changes [51]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to consider rolling long - buying at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts. The near - term fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak, but the cost side provides strong support [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will remain strong in the short term, but pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short - selling on rallies in the long term [53]. Pulp - The pulp market will have large intraday fluctuations. The spot market has weakened, but there is support from the long - term external price. It may oscillate and strengthen if the commodity sentiment improves [54]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are oscillating and strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The futures price is expected to be oscillating and strong with the improvement of commodity sentiment [55]. Urea - Urea futures are expected to be oscillating and strong. The spot market is stable, and pay attention to the improvement of future liquidity [55].