煤焦：市场情绪偏弱，盘面弱势震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end, so the driving force for coal price increase is not strong. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally declined, with coal and coke leading the decline, and the night session continued to be weak. In the spot market, the price of domestic medium and low sulfur coking coal increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton last week and remained weakly stable this week. The price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton last week, while the forward price of Australian coal increased by 18 US dollars/ton. The increase of coke price is still under game [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: This month, coal mines have increased production to cope with the output contraction caused by the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the seasonal pattern of previous years. It is expected that private coal mines will gradually stop production next week. Last week, the output of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to slightly increasing. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [3] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of daily average pig iron output has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 0.09 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.65 million tons compared with the same period last year. The procurement of raw materials by downstream coking and steel enterprises is still slow, and the available days of in-plant raw material inventory are generally lower than the same period of previous years. The auction failure rate in the market has increased significantly this week [3]