兼评12月企业利润数据：工企利润结束连降三年态势，2026开门红可期

Group 1: Profit Trends - In 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reversing a three-year decline[3] - December 2025 saw a significant profit increase of 18.4% year-on-year, reaching 5.3%[4] - The profit margin improved by 15.5 percentage points compared to previous months, indicating a recovery in profitability[4] Group 2: Revenue and Costs - December 2025 revenue decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, a decline of 3.0 percentage points from the previous value[4] - The cost structure for every 100 yuan of revenue in December included costs of 83.6 yuan, expenses of 10.7 yuan, and profit contributions from investment income of 5.6 yuan[5] - The "investment income + other income" significantly improved, suggesting a strong performance in the stock market and commodity prices[5] Group 3: Sector Performance - The profit share of the midstream sector rose to 40.7%, while upstream and downstream sectors saw varying performance[6] - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as integrated circuit manufacturing, showed remarkable growth rates of 172.6% and 128.0% respectively[6] - The profit growth gap between "anti-involution" and "non-anti-involution" industries narrowed to -2.6 percentage points, indicating a convergence in performance[6] Group 4: Inventory and Economic Outlook - The inventory-to-sales ratio increased, indicating a need for further domestic demand policies to stimulate the economy[7] - Overall, the industrial profit trend suggests a positive outlook for early 2026, supported by anticipated policy measures and a favorable base effect[7] - Risks include potential policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and unexpected economic downturns in the U.S.[7]