黑色金属数据日报-20260128

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel: The unilateral steel market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to basis opportunities. With the seasonal factor becoming more prominent, the spot volume and price are weakening marginally. The market can be treated with an oscillating mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions. The hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spread can still be rolled for operation [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are mainly oscillating. The supply is high while the demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure in the future [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market of coking coal and coke is weakening, and the futures market is also oscillating downward. The market is in the off-season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern due to the "resumption of production + replenishment" support. In the long term, the pressure from port inventory is significant. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices of steel decreased slightly on Tuesday, and trading volume continued to cool down. The futures prices moved in a narrow range. The black sector is in an interval oscillation. Due to seasonal factors, the spot volume and price are weakening. The demand for building materials is decreasing seasonally. Steel mills still have the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through the basis. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Recently, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have been oscillating. The supply side has occasional fluctuations. The demand side is poor as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are not good, and the iron - water output adjustment pressure is large. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The alloy plants' profits are not good, but the production is still high. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. There are policy benefits and cost support, but the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first round of coke price increase was shelved. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading sentiment has cooled down. The online auction has more unsuccessful bids. The coking coal price index has decreased. The Mongolian coal market is still cold. On the futures side, with the high - level correction of silver, the market sentiment has cooled down. The market is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The coal mine supply is recovering, but the downstream procurement has slowed down. It is recommended to cash in the spot at a high price before the Spring Festival and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of accelerated resumption of production in February and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment have a great impact on the transfer of iron ore inventory, which is one of the reasons for the relatively high iron ore price in the short term. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will still be the root cause of the iron ore pressure. In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but in the long term, the upward pressure is obvious. It is suggested that medium - and long - term investors short at the pressure level [6].