日度策略参考-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide a unified industry investment rating. Instead, it gives trend judgments and investment suggestions for different varieties, including "看多" (Bullish), "震荡" (Sideways), and "震荡偏强" (Sideways with an upward bias). 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock Index: In the short term, the adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it is expected to show a sideways - upward trend before the holiday, as the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm and market performance will be highly correlated with regulatory trends [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be noted [1]. - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The copper price maintains a high - level sideways movement as the dollar index has declined, but the enthusiasm for buying copper has eased [1]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price is expected to move sideways as the industrial driving force is limited recently, but the decline of the dollar index supports the price [1]. - Alumina: The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, as the current price is near the cost line, it is expected to move sideways [1]. - Zinc: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stable. The recent cold wave in North America has increased energy prices, which is not conducive to the resumption of overseas smelters. Zinc has a certain room for a supplementary rise [1]. - Nickel: In the short term, the nickel price is at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Supply concerns may continuously disrupt the market. In the long - term, high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [1]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel futures are in a high - level sideways movement. Supply - side disruptions are frequent, and spot trading is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - Tin: Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is negative news, the increase in tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. In the pattern of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is still upward potential for tin. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions [1]. - Precious Metals and New Energy: - Silver: International uncertainties and the weakening dollar index support the price of precious metals. Due to factors such as spot shortages and falling inventories, there is a significant short - squeeze sentiment in the domestic market. The import window has opened significantly. It is recommended to control positions in single - side trading and pay attention to the inter - market arbitrage opportunities for the far - month contracts [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - driving force has weakened slightly, but international uncertainties are still high, which may support the prices of platinum and palladium, and the price fluctuations may be large. In the long - term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. It is recommended to allocate platinum on dips or continue to pay attention to the [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The production of polysilicon and silicone decreased in December. The northwest region increased production while the southwest region decreased production [1]. - Black Metals: - Rebar and Iron Ore: High production, high inventory, etc., suppress the price increase space. The transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. It is recommended to exit long single - side positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage. The upward pressure on iron ore is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The market is pessimistic about the end - point price of the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase was shelved, short - sellers increased their positions. The coking coal 05 contract broke through important support levels. In the future, the price may be gradually priced according to the Mongolian coal long - term contract cost. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal [1]. - Agricultural Products: - Palm Oil: The purchasing rhythm of major consuming countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to show a sideways - upward trend [1]. - Soybean Oil: The domestic soybean - oil fundamentals are strong. Coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, creating a positive expectation gap. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". Future attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is no continuous driving force in the short - term fundamental aspect. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The corn sales progress has passed half, and the inventories at ports and downstream are still low. With the replenishment of downstream enterprises and the profit - taking of long - positions before the holiday, there is a certain risk of price correction [1]. - Soybeans: The dry weather in Argentina may cause short - term weather speculation. The precipitation in February is expected to return to normal. With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the overall rebound of M05 is expected to be limited [1]. - Pulp: The pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - environment. It has not broken through the sideways area. Short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebound, and the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas offer has still declined slightly, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the log futures and spot markets. It is expected to move sideways in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand, the production capacity still needs to be further released as the average slaughter weight has not decreased significantly [1]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil and Related Products: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified, and the cold wave in the United States has increased energy demand, which is beneficial to the price increase of crude oil and fuel oil [1]. - Asphalt: In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction rush demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is relatively high [1]. - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost has strong support, the synthetic rubber has risen significantly, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish, driving the upward movement of the natural - rubber market [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom. Recently, the profit of private butadiene - styrene rubber plants has been seriously lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to have a wide - range sideways correction, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. - PTA and Short - fiber: The strong PX market has led to the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of capital has flowed into the chemical sector. The polyester sector has led the rise of the entire chemical industry. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, and the production reduction of polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: After a long - term slump, the overseas ethylene - glycol price has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene - glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The speculative demand in the market has increased significantly [1]. - Styrene: The news of the shutdown of Middle Eastern styrene plants has led to a rapid rebound of the styrene futures price. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, the styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, the future import of methanol is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading plants have stopped production, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant will restart on January 25th. The Iranian situation has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. The freight in the inland area has increased due to the cold air, and the northwest enterprises have great pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1]. - Polyethylene: The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase. The full - density plant of Zhong'an United has stopped production, and the linear - production ratio has decreased [1]. - PVC: In 2026, the global PVC production capacity will be put into operation less, and the future expectation is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor. The export tax - rebate policy has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export in the future. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity [1]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the market sentiment will switch between fundamentals and emotions. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the futures price is expected to weaken. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1]. - Shipping: The freight rate has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].