中原期货晨会纪要-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including chemicals, agriculture, macroeconomics, and finance. It details price movements, supply - demand dynamics, and market trends for different commodities and financial instruments. It also offers trading strategies and risk considerations for each segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemicals - On January 28, among the chemical products, crude oil had the largest increase with a 2.082% rise, while styrene had the largest decline with a 0.745% drop [4]. Agriculture - Sugar: Facing strong supply pressure but with cost support, it may maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Suggested to wait and see or conduct range operations [13]. - Corn: The upward momentum has weakened, and there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 2270 - 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - Peanuts: The market is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is advisable to conduct range operations, with the upper pressure around 8114 yuan and the lower support at the 8000 - yuan mark [13]. - Other agricultural products: Pig prices are likely to rise, egg prices are approaching their peak with an expected decline after the holiday, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Macroeconomic News - China will introduce policies to protect the rights of new - form workers, and the profit of industrial enterprises in 2025 has reversed the downward trend [7]. - The Nipah virus in India has little impact on China, and a new drug has shown antiviral activity [7]. - Shenzhen's Nanshan District has become the first district with a GDP exceeding one trillion [7]. - The British Prime Minister will visit China, and the US dollar index has dropped [8]. - There is a new wave of price increases in the global chip industry [8]. - New AI models have been released [9]. Main Varieties Morning Meeting Views - Agricultural Products -白糖: Affected by international and domestic supply, it is in a state of low - level oscillation. The key is to watch the support at 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [13]. -玉米: The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the support at 2270 - 2280 yuan/ton [13]. -花生: Oscillating in the short term, with the upper pressure at 8114 yuan and the lower support at 8000 yuan [13]. -生猪: The spot price is likely to rise, while the futures price is weak [15]. -鸡蛋: The spot price is approaching its peak, and the futures price shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [15]. -红枣: The price is seeking support downward, and it is recommended to short after a rebound [15]. -棉花: Oscillating in a range, with support at 14500 yuan/ton and a possible decline to 14300 yuan/ton [15]. - Energy and Chemicals -烧碱: The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be weakly stable [15]. -焦煤 and Coke: Pressured and oscillating weakly [17]. -原木: Oscillating in a range, with the upper pressure at 775 - 778 yuan and the lower support at 771 yuan [17]. -纸浆: Weakly oscillating, with support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. -双胶纸: Oscillating in the 4100 - 4200 yuan/ton range, and beware of the price breaking below 4100 yuan [17]. - Non - ferrous Metals -铜 and Aluminum: The medium - term logic remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments and attention to macro risks [18]. -氧化铝: The supply is excessive, and the price is low [18]. -螺纹钢 and Hot Rolled Coil: The downstream winter storage intention is insufficient, and the steel mills' restocking is nearing the end. The support for rebar is at 3000 - 3100 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is at 3200 - 3250 yuan [18]. -铁合金: The cost is supported, and the short - term trend is to go long on dips [19]. -碳酸锂: The price is strong in the short term, and it is advisable to go long above 170000 yuan/ton [19]. - Option Finance - Stock Index Options - On January 27, the A - share market showed mixed trends among different indexes. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - The A - share index is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic in the short term, focus on the main market direction, and avoid chasing high prices [22].