黑色建材日报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has weakened, and prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash continue to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also in a state of oscillatory operation with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [1][3] - The strategies for glass and silicomanganese are to expect an oscillatory trend, and for soda ash, it is an oscillatory and weakening trend, while for silicon - iron, it is also an oscillatory trend [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The glass 2605 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and some manufacturers slightly raised prices with a fair trading atmosphere. The soda ash 2605 contract mainly oscillated, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Glass fundamentals are still weak. With the Spring Festival approaching, production line cold - repairs continue, and there are still expectations of production suspension. Recently, shipments have improved, and inventory pressure on the supply side has eased. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday. For soda ash, 1719 warehouse receipts were recorded yesterday. As the delivery month approaches, a sharp increase in single - day warehouse receipts suppresses prices. The latest data shows an increase in inventory, weak demand, and deepening supply - demand contradictions. Considering the warehouse - receipt game in the delivery month, soda ash prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory operation [1] - Strategy: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the silicomanganese main contract showed a weakening trend during the day with a large increase in positions. The alloy cost has fair support, with the 6517 northern market price ranging from 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. An eastern steel mill set the silicomanganese tender price at 5830 yuan/ton today, with a tender quantity of 4000 tons. The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate weakly yesterday, the ferrosilicon market had a slight adjustment, and the market sentiment was rather flat. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5750 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities being put into operation, so the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, the demand for silicomanganese is expected to improve. The recent South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, and it may increase the manganese ore cost in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes. For ferrosilicon, the fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and winter stockpiling, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to decline further next year and the overall ferrosilicon production capacity is in surplus, the price increase is restricted. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of ferrosilicon and the electricity price policy in production areas [3] - Strategy: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]