低利率环境下的银行业生存图景：低利率时代我国商业银行净息差及盈利能力的演化逻辑与前瞻

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for commercial banks in China, with a focus on the narrowing net interest margin (NIM) and profitability under a low interest rate regime [2]. Core Insights - The net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks has been declining, reaching 1.42% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable "inversion" between NIM and non-performing loan rates, posing significant challenges to the traditional profit model reliant on interest rate spreads [2][7]. - Leading banks are adjusting their asset-liability structures to stabilize and potentially recover NIM, while regulatory bodies are enhancing guidance through self-regulatory mechanisms and policy tools to maintain reasonable NIM levels [2][34]. - The report anticipates that the rate of decline in NIM may slow, but some banks may still experience low or negative NIM, necessitating ongoing attention to their long-term profitability and credit quality [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Net Interest Margin - Net interest margin (NIM) is a key indicator of bank profitability, reflecting the ability to earn net interest income through core operations, influenced by asset pricing, liability costs, and the structure of assets and liabilities [4]. 2. Current Status and Influencing Factors of NIM - Since 2015, China's commercial banks have experienced two significant downward cycles in NIM, with a cumulative decline of approximately 100 basis points from around 2.5% to about 1.42% by mid-2025 [6][7]. - Factors affecting NIM include declining LPR rates, increased competition, and changes in loan structures, leading to lower interest income and profitability [10][18]. 3. Short-term Responses of Commercial Banks - In response to low NIM, banks are focusing on enhancing asset yields, reducing liability costs, and expanding non-interest income to stabilize overall profitability [30]. - Banks are increasing their allocation to financial assets and enhancing bond trading capabilities, with financial assets constituting 31.25% of total assets by mid-2025 [31]. - Efforts to lower liability costs include adjusting deposit structures and rates, optimizing funding sources, and managing high-cost products [32][33]. 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The narrowing of NIM is a result of both cyclical and structural factors, posing core challenges to traditional profit models [34]. - The report suggests that banks with strong pricing capabilities, stable low-cost funding, and diversified income structures are likely to navigate the cycle successfully, while others may face ongoing pressure on NIM and profitability [35].