新能源及有色金属日报：基本面数据表现坚挺-20260128

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side pressure is prominent, and the inventory accumulation trend in China is expected to continue, even during the peak consumption season. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non-ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$26.43/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 24,760 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 24,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 24,690 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -35 yuan/ton. [1] - Futures: On January 27, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,280 yuan/ton, closed at 24,950 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 255,674 lots, and the open interest was 118,946 lots. The highest price during the day was 25,280 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,710 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: As of January 27, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 116,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 110,550 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day. [3]